Ibovespa closes near stability with fiscal uncertainty and falling oil, a day of blinding optimism in the US.

SÃO PAULO – Ibovespa closed close to stability on Wednesday (7), presenting a much weaker performance than the Wall Street indices. The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 1.91%, 1.74% and 1.88% respectively.

Here, the fiscal risk again generated concern despite the fact that the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, denied the news that the government could extend the Emergency Aid until June 2021.

Guedes denied the information transmitted by the magazine’s website see and said aid ends in December. The XP policy analysis team points out that there are practical limits to paying the benefit with extraordinary credit.

According to the magazine, if Brazil did not grow again in the first quarter of next year, the Bolsonaro administration could extend Emergency Aid until June. If the term were extended, the government would total R $ 100.5 billion in expenses with the program.

Who also limited optimism here was the fall of oil in the international market, which affected the shares of Petrobras (PETR3; PETR4).

The Ibovespa had a slight negative variation of 0.09%, in 95,526 points with a financial volume of R $ 23.105 billion.

Meanwhile, the commercial dollar rose 0.5% to R $ 5,622 in the purchase and R $ 5,623 in the sale. The US dollar maturing in November registered an increase of 0.68%, to R $ 5,636.

Abroad, the relief was paid after US President Donald Trump’s announcement of measures to bail out airlines and support the economy totaling $ 25 billion.

The day before, Trump’s decision to halt negotiations between Democrats and Republicans for a trillion dollar stimulus package against the economic impacts of the coronavirus ended up causing stock markets around the world, including Brazil’s, to crash.

The US president said the stimulus will only be approved if he is reelected in November. Later, however, Trump asked Congress to extend some measures to support the activity.

The one who has not yet recovered from the strike in the talks for the trillion dollar package was oil. Investors bought futures contracts for the commodity counting on the increase in demand caused by the fiscal expansion of the US government, so today was a day of adjustment in the fuel market.

A barrel of Brent, used as a benchmark by Petrobras, fell 1.38% to US $ 42.06, while a barrel of WTI fell 1.67% to US $ 39.99.

In the future interest market, the ID of January 2022 fell eight basis points to 3.28%, the ID of January 2023 fell six basis points to 4.76%, the ID of January 2025 closed stable at 6, 68% and the DI of January 2027 registered a positive variation of four basis points at 7.60%.

The DI reflected the statements of the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto. He once again defended the spending ceiling amid uncertainty about how the Ingreso Ciudadano program will be financed.

“The ceiling was the anchor that allowed Brazil to spend more during the pandemic, because later the agents understood what expenses were going to return to the ceiling,” evaluated Campos Neto. For the president of the monetary authority, when doubts begin to arise about the return to the spending limit, there is a risk of putting a price on the path of the public debt.

The market also followed the news today that the government wants to incorporate measures of the so-called “war budget” in the text of the Proposal for Constitutional Reform (PEC) of the Federative Pact. The objective, according to Status, it is about regulating fiscal rules in case of calamity, which would increase the spending space in 2021, in the case of a new wave of Covid-19, for example.

Attention is drawn to the information that President Jair Bolsonaro intends to define the unpopular measures to finance Citizen Income after the municipal elections.

At the same time, Senator Marcio Bittar (MDB-AC) pointed out that the Renta Ciudadana proposal should be ready next week. Faced with this scenario, political leaders ask the government to define a minimum agenda of proposals for the economy to vote before the end of the year.

Even the Fomc

The directors of the Federal Reserve (as the Central Bank of the United States is called) fear that the lack of additional fiscal stimulus could harm the recovery of the American economy, according to the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) . in English).

At their last meeting on September 15-16, members of the US BC discussed the economic outlook amid the coronavirus pandemic, as Fomc members said the economy was doing much better than expected in large part. due to fiscal assistance provided by the government.

That support is at risk as negotiations between the White House and Democrats in Congress have come to a halt and may not resume before the November election, as President Donald Trump decided this week.

BNDES

The BNDES allowed large companies to access the emergency credit line guaranteed by the Treasury, which until yesterday was only allowed to companies with annual income of up to R $ 300 million, according to Folha de S.Paulo. The goal is to release up to R $ 20 billion in collateral, which would allow the granting of up to R $ 100 billion in loans.

Large companies will have the right to access 10% of the resources contributed by Tesouro in the program, or R $ 2 billion. The bank expects to be able to grant up to R $ 10 billion in financing, since each R $ 1 issued by the government can leverage another R $ 5.

Another highlight is the information that the Federal Regional Court of the 1st Region ordered the closure of the investigations against the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, carried out by the Operation Greenfield working group of the MPF (Federal Public Ministry) in Brasilia.

According to sheet, two investigations were opened against Guedes for suspicion of participation in fraud in the contributions of pension funds linked to state companies in two investment funds created by BR Educacional Gestora de Ativos, a company linked to the minister.

In addition, the market follows the revelation that the academic curriculum presented by Judge Kassio Nunes Marques, appointed by President Jair Bolsonaro to the Federal Supreme Court (STF), brings a postgraduate degree that is not confirmed by the University of La Coruña. in Spain.

Corporate radar

On the corporate front, the market today follows the debut of Sequoia Logística’s shares on the stock market. Additionally, the sale of Laureate’s Brazilian assets remains on investors’ radar. Hope Education, a Hong Kong group that acquired the Laureate unit in Malaysia about 10 days ago, also intended to bid for the Brazilian operation. However, it gave up this week, according to Valor Econômico.

Higher highs

Higher number of casualties

Azul reported that its liquidity position was R $ 2.3 billion at the end of September. In addition, the original forecast was a cash consumption of approximately R $ 3 million per day for the second half of the year, but it showed a cash increase of approximately R $ 700 thousand per day during the third quarter.

In addition, MRV announced that it will distribute dividends, while Sanepar managed to reduce 60% of an environmental fine. Braskem said the usage rate of its units in the United States returned to normal, while resin sales reached a record in Brazil.

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