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SAO PAULO – The Ibovespa operates with slight losses on Wednesday (23), taking off from the more optimistic scenario abroad after positive data from the euro zone, while here the focus is on the expectation of a greater fiscal deficit and the result above than expected for the IPCA-15.
The market also follows the information that the Ministry of Economy raised the expectation of the primary deficit in 2020 to R $ 861 billion, according to a report released last night, which represents an increase in relation to the deficit of R $ 787.45 billion . expected for public accounts in the report at the end of July.
Also in the domestic scenario, the expectation is growing to create a tax on digital transactions, after President Jair Bolsonaro gave the green light to the idea. According to Folha de S. Paulo, the government will now seek the support of the centão to present the proposal to Congress. The expectation is to raise R $ 120 billion per year with the new tax, in line with the defunct CPMF.
At 10:15 am (Brasilia time), the stock market benchmark fell 0.25%, to 97,053 points, while the commercial dollar recorded gains of 0.62%, priced at R $ 5.5000 on the purchase and R $ 5,5020 for sale. The future dollar for October, on the other hand, registered an increase of 0.58%, to R $ 5,503.
In the future interest market, the ID of January 2022 rises two basis points to 2.93%, the ID of January 2023 advances three basis points to 4.37%, while the ID of January 2025 rises four points basic at 6.33%.
The National Comprehensive Consumer Price Index – Base 15 (IPCA-15) rose 0.45% in September in the monthly comparison, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Economists expect, according to the Bloomberg consensus, that inflation measured by the IPCA-15 will increase by 0.39% in September in the monthly comparison
Abroad, European economic activity showed slower growth in September, with the Markit Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) at 50.1, down from 51.9 in August. Even so, readings above 50 indicate an expansion in activity.
Before that, Spain revised its Gross Domestic Product forecast for a 17.8% drop in the second quarter compared to the previous period, less severe than the previous estimate of 18.5% drop.
Schedule
The National Broad Consumer Price Index – Base 15 (IPCA-15) rose 0.45% in September in the monthly comparison, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) this Wednesday (23).
The expectation of economists, according to the Bloomberg consensus, was that inflation measured by the IPCA-15 would increase by 0.39% in September in the monthly comparison, after accelerating by 0.23% in the previous measurement. In the annual comparison, inflation was projected to rise 2.6%, compared to 2.28% in the previous reading.
Also expected today is the US Markit Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which will update the outlook for the economy’s recovery. The Europe indicator was announced this morning.
Also, another speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected today at the Congressional Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis.
This Wednesday marks the second day of the largest real estate fund event in the country, between September 22 and 24. Online and free of charge, the FII Summit – Real Estate Funds Forum, organized by the InfoMoney, brings together executives from some of the largest construction companies and developers in the country, as well as economists, analysts and managers from FII, who will discuss the trends of this market in its various segments (commercial, hotel, logistics and residential).
To participate in the FII Summit, which has the support of XP Investimentos, register for free on the event website. Check the full schedule by clicking here.
Deficit and new tax
The Ministry of Economy raised the expectation of the primary deficit in 2020 to R $ 861 billion, according to a report released last night, which represents an increase in relation to the deficit of R $ 787.45 billion expected for public accounts in the Final of July.
For this year, the government was authorized to record in its accounts a primary deficit of up to R $ 124.1 billion, according to G1. The new calculation considers a 4.7% retraction of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year, equal to the latest estimate released by the Ministry of Economy.
The revenue forecast in 2020 worsened R $ 9,725 billion, rising to R $ 1,446 billion in the case of gross revenue and R $ 1,185 billion in net revenue.
The worsening is due to changes in tax legislation to combat covid-19, a result of the collection between June and August 2020 and the revision of the estimates of the impact of the postponement in tax collection, according to O Estado de S. Paul. The expense forecast increased R $ 63.6 billion in relation to that projected in the third quarter, to R $ 2,046 billion.
Another highlight of the national news is the information that the digital transaction tax proposal prepared by the team of the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, received the green light from President Jair Bolsonaro. According to Folha de S.Paulo, now the government will seek the support of the centão to present the proposal to Congress. The expectation is to raise R $ 120 billion per year with the new tax, in line with the defunct CPMF.
The funds will pay the payroll tax exemption. The benefit would end this year, but Congress extended it until the end of 2021. The proposal is expected to be presented by government leaders this week, according to the state of São Paulo.
Research
Also noteworthy is the information that President Jair Bolsonaro and his sons made cash donations to finance their electoral campaigns from 2008 to 2014, according to Folha de S.Paulo.
In total, R $ 100 thousand were injected, which represents values of R $ 163 thousand, adjusted for inflation. Although transactions in kind are not a crime, they can be aimed at making it difficult to trace the origin of the securities, according to the publication.
Still on the Bolsonaro family, yesterday Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro (PSL-SP) delivered a deposition of more than six hours to the Federal Police in the investigation that investigates the financing and organization of antidemocratic acts.
In addition, the data on the flow of currencies showed an unprecedented outflow of external resources, according to O Globo. In the first eight months of the year, US $ 15.2 billion left the country, the highest volume since the beginning of the historical series, in 1982. In addition, foreign investors withdrew R $ 87.3 billion from the stock market Brazilian from January to 17. September 2020.
This is almost double what was registered in the whole of last year, when R $ 44.5 billion came out. It is the largest deviation from the B3 series, which began in 2008. In addition to the global crisis and uncertainties about the fiscal adjustment in Brazil, the advance of fires and deforestation may further aggravate the situation, according to the newspaper.
Corporate radar
In the corporate news, the highlight is the announcement of the combination of the Localiza and Unidas businesses, through a share exchange agreement. Under the agreement, announced last night, Unidas shareholders will receive 0.44682380 common shares issued by Localiza to replace each of the common shares issued by Unidas that they hold. As a result, Localiza shareholders would jointly own 76.85% of the total and voting capital of the combined company, and the then United shareholders would jointly own 23.14%.
In addition, investment bank BR Partners and logistics company Hidrovias do Brasil will set the price per share today in their initial public offerings. Petrobras announced a 4% increase in gasoline sold to refineries, while Cemig and Weg announced the payment of dividends to shareholders.
Itaúsa, a Brazilian investment holding company that has companies such as Itaú Unibanco, Duratex, Alpargatas and NTS in its portfolio, will hold Panorama Itaúsa 2020 on September 23, from 10 am to 12 pm, a free digital event that will discuss the strategies of the investee companies. On the date, the holding company will also promote a debate on the current economic scenario and business prospects.
The event will be attended by executives Alfredo Setubal, president of Itaúsa, Candido Bracher, executive president of Itaú Unibanco, Roberto Funari, president of Alpargatas, and Antonio Joaquim de Oliveira, president of Duratex. The event will also feature the participation of Mário Mesquita, chief economist at Itaú Unibanco, who will address the prospects for the economy and investments in Brazil. Registration is open to the general public and to register, simply go to the website panorama.itausa.com.br [panorama.itausa.com.br].
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