Why Bolsonaro’s announcement on the US sugar quota for Brazil is not a diplomatic victory

But the negotiations failed politically and sparked criticism over the country’s submission to its preferred ally. Tension continued to rise after Araújo served as a guide for US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on a whirlwind visit to Roraima last Friday, when the American criticized the Venezuelan regime.

“In general, there is a perception that Brazil is not being treated fairly before the United States, so the government is trying to publicize something trivial and expected, to find a balance in this image for its public.” an ambassador specialized in international trade told BBC News Brazil privately.

According to the diplomat, this is “trivial” and “expected” because although the president suggests that there was a permanent increase in the amount of sugar that Brazil could export to the Americans, what actually happened was a temporary relocation of suppliers by Americans.

The United States imports more than 3 million tons of sugar a year and gives preference to sellers from Africa or Central America. But, if these regular suppliers do not sell the necessary quantity and there is a shortage of the US market, the US Department of Agriculture informs the commercial representative of the country that it redirects its purchases to other producers, such as Brazil.

The same thing happened last year and in February of that year, without Bolsonaro making the event a reason for celebration in the networks on these two occasions.

“The United States did not do Brazil any favors, it only reassigned some volume (of sugar) to Brazil, within its general commercialism. This needs to be clarified, so that it does not look like a diplomatic victory that was not,” said Ambassador Paulo Robert. of Almeida.

But the current political moment may have caused this change in the president’s stance. Last weekend, the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, criticized Pompeo’s visit to Roraima and accused his presence as a voter and an affront to the country’s autonomy.

“The visit of the Secretary of State of the United States, Mike Pompeo, this Friday, to the facilities of Operation Welcome, in Roraima, near the border with Venezuela, at a time when there are only 46 days until the US presidential elections, it is not in line with good international diplomatic practice and challenges the traditions of autonomy and pride in our foreign and defense policies, “said Maia.

His criticisms were endorsed in a letter by all the former foreign ministers of the democratic period: Fernando Henrique Cardoso (government of Itamar Franco), Francisco Rezek (government of Collor), Celso Lafer (governments of Collor and FHC), Celso Amorim (governments of Itamar Franco and Lula), José Serra and Aloysio Nunes Ferreira (government of Temer).

The political climate became so difficult that on Monday senators even considered postponing the hearing of more than 20 Brazilian candidates for ambassadors around the world, who are awaiting confirmation by the Chamber of their positions. The boycott was demobilized after Ernesto Araújo agreed to appear in the Senate next Thursday to explain in detail Mike Pompeo’s visit.

The main players in Bolsonaro’s announcement, the sugar producers, did not consider the quota increase a victory either. According to data from the Foreign Chamber of Commerce, in the last five harvests, Brazil has exported an average of 25.6 million tons of sugar in total. In this universe, the 80 thousand tons that the United States must buy now represent only 0.3%.

In a note, the Union of the Sugar Cane Industry (UNICA) and the National Forum of Sugar and Energy (FNS) stated that “this additional sugar quota is considerably less than the monthly ethanol quota that Brazil returned to offer to the United States in September “and reaffirmed that the measure is not” an American concession. ”

“We must clarify that this is a normal procedure adopted by the US in recent years, without representing any structural advance for greater access of Brazilian sugar to that country,” say the producers in the note.

BBC News Brazil consulted Itamaraty on the negotiations with the Americans and the sugar quota, but did not receive a response until the publication of this report. Within the organization, the minister’s advisers affirm that commercial relations along these lines are normal, but that it is difficult to understand these movements from a perspective “in which the Brazilian concessions represent an absolute submission by Brazil while any US measure is a” consolation prize ‘”. .

Since taking office, Bolsonaro has caused a profound change in Brazilian international politics, making the United States his preferred ally.

The trade expert ambassador heard privately by BBC News Brazil affirms that quotas and concessions are common in international relations, but that in polarized environments, where these types of transactions have attracted attention, they have led politicians to try to exploit them. your favor. .

“In this case of sugar, there is nothing to say about the diplomatic victory, it is a conjunctural issue. Itamaraty and the productive sector know it. But the rest of the population, especially the president’s supporters, do not know it. And they will be satisfied. with your message, “he says.

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