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An article published on Tuesday (9/15) indicates that after herd immunity is achieved, Sars-CoV-2 can be more problematic at certain times of the year.
We already know of several viruses that cause more problems at certain times of the year, such as influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in winter or parainfluenza in September for the southern hemisphere.
According to an article published this Tuesday (9/15) in Frontiers in Public Health magazine, everything indicates that, in the future, the new coronavirus will also become a seasonal respiratory disease, possibly causing more problems in winter, but this only after Herd immunity to the new disease is achieved by natural means or through a vaccine. The work was the result of a review of previous studies on various types of viruses and their seasonality.
“Covid-19 is here to stay and will continue to cause outbreaks over time until herd immunity is achieved. Therefore, the public will need to learn to live with the disease and continue to practice the best preventive measures, including wearing masks.” . , avoid overcrowding, physical distance and hand hygiene, ”Hassan Zaraket, study leader and researcher at the American University in Beirut, Lebanon, explained in a press release.
“It is still a new virus and despite the rapid and growing volume of scientific evidence about it, there are still many unknowns. Whether our predictions will be confirmed in the future or not, we do not know yet. But we believe that it is very likely that the covid-19 becomes seasonal, like other coronaviruses. “
The seasonality of respiratory viruses is more evident in regions with temperate climates, while in tropical regions, such as Brazil, viruses such as influenza (which causes influenza) can affect more diluted throughout the year.
For Sars-CoV-2, however, the seasonality stage has not yet arrived because the populations it found later were immunologically unprotected; proof of this is their higher reproduction rate than other viruses, such as influenza.
An example that, at the moment, weather conditions still do not affect the spread of the coronavirus as much is that the highest per capita contagion rate in the world was recorded in the Persian Gulf in mid-summer, the authors note.
Still, according to the article, even though tropical regions are suffering heavily from covid-19, there is evidence that transmission was more aggressive in temperate regions during winter, indicating that cold and dry weather may favor the infection.
Seasonality has recently been reported for other coronaviruses, such as NL63 and HKU1.
The coronavirus that causes the Middle East respiratory syndrome (Mers), which has generated outbreaks in several countries since 2012, continues to produce “intermittent and sporadic” infections, with no obvious seasonality, says the article in Borders in Public Health.
The seasonality of viruses is the result of a combination of factors related to temperature and humidity, such as the survival conditions of pathogens in the air and on surfaces; decreased immunity to climate change; and habits, like huddling indoors when it’s cold.
