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Fabiano Gutierres / MetSul Archive
MetSul Meteorologia warns that the instability is intensifying and will reach a greater number of points in Rio Grande do Sul this Sunday with rains that will be locally strong to torrential at times with many lightning strikes and a very high probability of hail in some points, as well as happened early today in the cities of Greater Porto Alegre, the valleys and the north coast of Rio Grande do Sul. It will be another trip in the very long sequence of days of unstable weather in Rio Grande do Sul that MetSul expects to last at least another week .
Instability cannot move through the south of the country towards the Midwest and Southeast, which causes the flow of moisture from the Amazon to flow towards Rio Grande do Sul. Instability is concentrated in the transition area between two air masses, one cold in the south and another very hot in the north, and this will happen over the territory of Rio Grande do Sul. The following map shows the rain projection of the WRF model until 9 am on Tuesday morning, a model that is available for the subscriber in the maps section.
With the supply of warm air from the North and the warmer atmosphere from the Center to the North of Rio Grande do Sul this Sunday, although the surface temperature is not high, as will be the case of Porto Alegre and it will not be that of the Northwest municipalities and in the north of the state, instability tends to increase and charged clouds of type Cb (Cumulunimbus) are formed, which locally bring heavy rains, abundant electrical activity (lightning) and hail located at different points. In some, moderate to strong wind with instability.
Similar to what happened this Saturday morning. A weather balloon survey at 9 am today at the Santa María air base showed a surface temperature of 12ºC, but between 1,000 and 1,500 meters of altitude the temperature reached values of up to 16ºC.
University of Wyoming
This Sunday, hot air increases in the northern half of Rio Grande do Sul and, as a result, instability tends to intensify in the state with more extensive rains and a greater risk of isolated storms with many lightning and hail. With the high temperature in the upper levels of the atmosphere, convective movements are favored that lead to the formation of clouds with greater vertical development (loaded) and storms occur.
It is the time of year in which there is a greater incidence in the historical climatology of hail in Rio Grande do Sul. This Sunday, the rain with risk of localized hail tends to be more intense again at the points of parallel 30ºS, from the West (Uruguaiana) to the coast, passing through Santa María, the valleys and the Greater Porto Alegre.
It turns out that the rain will be more extensive than this Saturday and the rainfall should reach cities that did not have rain, as expected, this Saturday. This will be the case in many municipalities in the southern half, with the exception of the extreme south and the northern half, with the exception of places further north-west and north of the state near Santa Catarina.
Sunday 6h
Sunday 12 noon
6pm on Sunday
On Monday, the instability loses strength in the West, the Center and the South of Rio Grande do Sul and tends to be more concentrated in the North Half with rains, which will come with strong blows locally, lightning and isolated hail. Serra, Aparados and Litoral Norte are the areas where the rain should be more voluminous and the instability stronger during the second.
For those who can’t take so much rain anymore, the news couldn’t be worse. According to the latest data, instability may be longer than previously believed. The numerical models analyzed by MetSul that projected instability in Rio Grande do Sul until Friday (11) now indicate a probability of rain at least in part of the state until Sunday (13). Only at the beginning of the other week, between the 13th and the 14th of this month, the climate would settle in gaucho territory and even then not for long, since there will be no entry of polar air.
It is important to note that, although instability is expected until the 13th in Rio Grande do Sul, this does not mean that the rain will be incessant in the next seven to eight days and that all cities will have rain at the same time among the 497 municipalities. of State. There will be moments of improvement, even for sunbathing, because shortly after it will rain again.
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