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After the record drop in the second quarter, with a drop of 9.7% compared to the previous three months, the Brazilian economy should show a recovery until the end of this year. But sustained and sustained growth will depend on the control of public accounts and the resumption of the reform agenda, according to economists heard by the G1.
The Jair Bolsonaro administration has a difficult equation ahead of it. Emergency Aid has helped mitigate the effects of the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic, but it is costly for a country that has tried for years to adjust public accounts. And the creation of the Renda Brasil program, to replace Bolsa Família, must also find resistance to adjust to the spending ceiling, which limits the growth of public spending to the inflation of the previous year.
A possible permanent deterioration in public accounts can lead to a worsening of the risk perception in the Brazilian economy, increasing uncertainty and driving away investments.
HE G1 He spoke with three economists about the challenges and what to expect from the Brazilian economy in the coming months. Check out the video below and read the interviews:
After a record drop, the country has to cope with the fiscal challenge and slow recovery
For the chief economist of Banco Santander, Ana Paula Vescovi, the Brazilian economy must continue with fiscal discipline and advance the reform agenda to regain investor confidence, modernize the Brazilian economy and ensure a sustained recovery of the country’s economy. since 2021.
Click here to read the full interview.
The former president of the Central Bank, Affonso Celso Pastore, estimates that Brazil’s recovery will be slow. Without controlling the pandemic and with the labor market severely affected by the health crisis, the economist says that household consumption should not have the strength to help sustain the country’s Gross Domestic Product. He also expresses concern about the direction of the country’s public accounts, especially if the government of Jair Bolsonaro abandons any fiscal commitment with a view to the 2022 presidential elections.
Click here to read the full interview.
Economist Zeina Latif believes that the financial market is more “sensitive” to the dubious signals from the government of Jair Bolsonaro regarding the control of public accounts – the president even said that there was a discussion to change the spending ceiling. For her, the worst of the crisis caused by the pandemic is behind her, but she believes that the recovery will be slow. In 2021 it projects a growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between 2% and 2.5%.
Click here to read the full interview.
