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Brazil will have around 90,000 deaths from coronavirus in August, according to a projection by the US center that advises the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), which anticipates the estimated balance of 6,000 deaths in Mexico, Peru and Ecuador, in addition to approximately 700 deaths. in Argentina.
The Institute of Metric and Health Assessment (IHME), of the University of Washington, revealed this week its model of estimates for Latin America, whose projections are until August 4.
“This analysis shows in Latin America an expected major epidemic in Brazil and then smaller but substantial epidemics in Mexico, Peru and Ecuador, as well as a much smaller epidemic in Argentina,” IHME Director Christopher Murray told reporters in the last Wednesday.
Nine countries in Latin America that have had more than 50 deaths from the new coronavirus were studied.
According to the figures compiled up to May 12, Brazil would be the most affected, with 88,305 deaths, in an estimated interval between 30,302 and 193,786. On the other hand, Argentina would have only 680 deaths (414 to 1,420).
In comparison, Mexico would total 6,859 deaths from covid-19 (3,578 to 16,795); Peru, 6,428 (2,731 to 21,724); and Ecuador, 5,215 (4,844 to 6,052).
Colombia would have 2,157 (793 to 5,890). Panama will be the least affected, with 661 deaths (362 to 1,345), as well as Chile, with 687 (421 to 1,417), and the Dominican Republic, with 881 (595 to 1,435).
The risk of the southern winter
The IHME model takes into account mobility (measured with cell phone applications), seasonality (temperature variations), the number of tests performed per capita and population density “as the main factors for transmission potential,” he said. Murray.
The expert said that he was aware of the difficulties of contemplating the aspects of health and the economy for decision-making, but pointed out that “from the point of view of public health, there is no sense in loosening the measures of social distance when still peak infection has not been reached. “
The IHME warned in a statement that, in places where infections continue to occur and where evidence and follow-up of contacts are insufficient, reducing social isolation can prolong the pandemic and lead to more deaths, in addition to increasing the risk of a second wave of contagions.
According to Murray, for Brazil the peak of contagion will be reached in late June. He also noted that winter in the southern region “will probably worsen the scenario.”
“In the northern hemisphere, where rising temperatures may be reducing transmission a bit, the opposite may be true for southern Brazilian states,” he said with the arrival of winter.
More evidence is needed in Mexico
The IHME clarified that the estimates for Brazil and Mexico are the result of data from some states, so national forecasts are likely to be higher.
In Brazil, the highest number of cumulative deaths expected for August is found in São Paulo, which would have 36,811 (11,097 to 81,774), and in Rio de Janeiro, with 21,073 (5,966 to 51,901). COVID-19 would cause at least 9,401 cumulative deaths in Pernambuco, 8,679 in Ceará and 5,039 in Amazonas.
In Mexico, the highest number of deaths is expected in the capital, Mexico City, with 3,414 (1,396 to 9,671) and in Baja California, with 1,171 (675 to 2,566).
In both countries, Murray emphasized the need for further testing.
The number of tests in Mexico “is extremely low by world standards,” so there are likely to be “many, many cases” that have yet to be reported.
In Brazil “the number of tests is not as low as in Mexico, but it is very low,” he added.
In revealing its projections, the institute said “in the absence of actions to increase the number of tests, especially among the states with the highest numbers in the pandemic, the trajectory of COVID-19 may worsen in Mexico.”
