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RIO – Seven Brazilian states have the health system strangled by the lack of hospital beds and accumulate conditions that would emergency shutdown the most efficient policy against Covid-19, according to a GLOBO survey based on data provided by state departments. They are: Amazonas, Ceará, Maranhão, Pará, Pernambuco, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, all with more than 80% of the vacancies filled in the ICU.
The state with the highest occupancy rate is Pernambuco, with 98% of beds in intensive care units used by patients with the new coronavirus. In addition to the few vacancies, Brazil has yet to reduce the contagion rate, and each infected person transmits the disease to nearly three people, according to data from Imperial College, a number that should also be considered to take more drastic measures.
Yesterday, Brazil broke a record of deaths recorded in 24 hours: 751 deaths, in addition to 10,222 new cases. The country accumulates 9,897 deaths and 145,328 diagnosed. Even in the face of increasing numbers and the need for isolation measures, defended by experts, President Jair Bolsonaro emphasized that the responsibility for maintaining the closure of trade falls on the governors and mayors.
Read:The virus killed more nurses in Brazil than in the countries with the highest disease record.
– You know that the decision to close the trade depends on the governors and mayors, not mine. If it were mine, it would have a slightly different position from the one they are taking there. If it were up to me, a large chunk would already be working. Another large part would not have stopped working, Bolsonaro told supporters in front of the Alvorada Palace.
A study published yesterday by Imperial College London found that the outbreak of the new coronavirus in Brazil has only just begun and that, although distance measures have slowed its spread, the situation will worsen if stricter forms of isolation are not adopted. According to the study, the disease is still out of control in Brazil.
Last letter
“In no state in Brazil, our results indicate that herd immunity is close to being achieved, underscoring the initial stage of the epidemic in Brazil today and the possibility that the situation will worsen, unless other control measures are taken. “, He says. the study.
Adopted as the last card in countries such as France, Italy and Spain, the emergency shutdown it is seen as a radicalization of the measures of social isolation, since the quarantine decreed after the arrival of Covid-19 did not obtain the expected adherence of the population.
Understand:How blocking measures work
In Brazil, according to the Imperial College, each infected person transmits the disease to three people. It is the highest index seen in the survey, conducted in 48 nations. If there are fewer people on the street, there is less chance of contagion.
São Luís, Fortaleza and Belém this week began compulsory confinement of the population, and government officials are considering imposing fines on people who move without obeying the restrictions provided in municipal decrees. Niterói will adopt the measure on Monday. There is not emergency shutdown, private vehicles are prohibited and non-essential services are available; Supermarkets and pharmacies are allowed.
Confinement has been seen as an attempt to remedy the chaotic condition caused by the coronavirus in hospitals. In the state of Rio, which is considering joining the emergency shutdown353 public patients with suspicion or diagnosis are waiting to be transferred to the ICU, which can be regulated for different networks, be they municipal, state or federal.
– Today, the ICU line is the burial line – says oncologist Daniel Tabak, one of the members of the commission: – Our network of hospitals does not handle cases, we see patients lying on a stretcher in the corridors of the public hospitals, and many people die at home without having been tested for the disease. But how are we going to prevent people from walking the streets if there is no way to guarantee their livelihood?
Edison Bueno, head of Unicamp’s Department of Collective Health, also regrets the delay in the fight against the coronavirus, inflated, in many cases, by the denial of scientific theories. Confinement can be an outlet for places where more than 80% of hospital beds are occupied, he says. However, this policy takes time to reap results and, therefore, may face resistance from the population:
– It takes two to three weeks for newly infected people to develop Covid-19 symptoms, and then they can be hospitalized and stay in the hospital for up to a month. If confinement has already been instituted, the population can see these cases and think that they occurred while it was closed, then they will find that the emergency shutdown Is not working.
10 million infected
The country’s precarious hospital infrastructure was highlighted in a study published earlier this month in the journal “Science of Total Environment.” According to the survey, 69% of municipalities will not have enough beds to receive patients infected with the coronavirus, mainly in the north and northeast regions.
The study considered a scenario in which 0.2% of the country’s population was diagnosed with the virus, the same percentage used in research conducted in China. This means that 10 million cases would be confirmed in Brazil if measures were not taken, even so, it would be insufficiently reported.
To assess the impact of the coronavirus in each municipality, the investigation took into account factors such as the size of the trade and the concentration of the population. Then, the data was verified with the number of beds. From there, it was possible to calculate the deficit of vacancies in hospitals.
Study co-author Weeberb Réquia, a professor at the FGV-DF School of Public Policy and Government, points out that there are two ways to control the pandemic in the country: social isolation and investment in health. Opt for the second measure, considering it less “painful” for the population.
– If the number of beds and health professionals increases by 50%, the result will be as efficient as the confinement of 75% of the population, he highlights.
(Rafael García, Dimitrius Dantas and Marcelo Ribeiro, from Valor, collaborated)
