Quarantines still do not contain coronaviruses in Brazil, according to a study | Brazil

“In no state in Brazil, our results indicate that the herd’s immunity is close to being achieved, underscoring the initial stage of the epidemic in Brazil today and the possibility that the situation will worsen unless other control measures are taken.” says the study

According to one of the study’s authors, the statistician Henrique Hoeltgebaum, “a collapse in the hospital capacity of some states is expected” if the pattern observed in the country is maintained.

One of the main indicators of transmission control is the reproduction number (Rt), which indicates how many people each infected with the coronavirus transmits the disease. If this number is greater than 1, the rate of transmission increases: each infected person passes the coronavirus to more than one person, who in turn also transmits it to more than one person, which accelerates the infection.

The research, signed by 59 researchers from the Center for the Global Analysis of Infectious Diseases (CAGDI), estimates that the interventions reduced mobility in Brazil by 29%, causing a 54% drop in Rt, insufficient to contain the expansion accelerated illness

For comparison, studies in Italy have shown that quarantine reduced mobility by 53% and Rt by 85%, bringing the indicator significantly below 1.

In Brazil, the number of reproductions reached 2.81 at the end of April (that is, each Brazilian transmitted the coronavirus to almost 3 people), according to the institute’s short-term forecasts. In the forecast as of earlier this week, the number was 1.49.

The work published Friday analyzed 16 states with enough numbers of deaths to generate reliable statistical results. In all of them, the Rt is above 1: the smallest indicator is Santa Catarina, with 1.14 (with a range of 0.91 to 1.38), and the largest, in Pará, with 1.90 (from 1.57 to 2.31).

Calculations show that the interventions adopted have reduced the estimated value of Rt in all states, although they have not been sufficient.

“In the absence of additional important interventions, a substantial growth in the epidemic is expected in the 16 Brazilian states considered, leading to the worsening of the public health crisis,” says the text.

A complicated factor in the Brazilian case is that there is a substantial variation between the measures adopted, and cities and states apply different restrictions at different times.

The capital of São Paulo, for example, will adopt a more restricted car rotation next Monday to try to increase the social distance rate in the capital, which has remained below 50% in recent days. In the rest of the state, if this isolation index continues, at the end of May, all 645 municipalities in São Paulo will have cases and deaths due to covid-19, according to a study prepared by the state government and presented by the director of the Institute. Butantan, Dimas Covas.

Only a few states, such as Maranhão and Pará, have enacted a blockade, an even stricter measure of confinement. But even after the announcement, there was a lot of movement at fairs and markets in Belém, the capital of Pará.

Amazonas Governor Wilson Lima (PSC) announced on April 30 a plan for a phased reopening of non-essential trade in Manaus despite jumps in cases of the new coronavirus in recent weeks. The city’s health system was the first to collapse in the country. The capital of Amazonas is also the only one so far to bury dead people in mass graves after deaths grew 179.5% in April, compared to the same period last year.

“The interventions employed to date are far less than the widespread and mandatory blockades implemented in parts of Asia and Europe, which have proven to be very effective in slowing down the spread of the virus,” the work says.

São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Ceará, Pernambuco and Amazonas account for 81% of deaths in the country. Among these five, the center estimates that São Paulo has the lowest percentage of the infected population: 3.3% (from 2.8% to 3.7%, with a 95% confidence interval). Most of the infected people are in Amazonas: 10.6% (which varies from 8.8% to 12.1%).

Although it is not a direct conclusion of the study, calculations indicate that the number of infected in the 16 states analyzed corresponds to 38 times the number of officially confirmed cases: according to the accounts of Imperial College, up to this quarter (6) 4.2 million of total infections in Brazil, which had its first reported case on February 25 and became the epicenter of the disease in South America.

According to official figures, there are more than 135,000 confirmed cases and 9,000 deaths. The number of infections has doubled in the past ten days.

The infectious disease analysis center at Imperial College is considered one of the world’s leading centers for developing mathematical models to estimate the evolution of pandemics and guide the formulation of health policy.

Brazilian doctor Ricardo Schnekenberg, who is from the University of Oxford but participated in the study published today, says that the group is focusing on studying the epicenters of this pandemic. This week, Italy was also the subject of a paper, published on Monday.