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SÃO PAULO – A study published this Friday by the Imperial University, London, a benchmark institution in medicinepoints out that the outbreak of the new coronavirus not Brazil It has only just begun and, although distance measures have diminished its spread, as has happened in European and Asian countries, the situation will worsen if more rigid measures of social distance are not adopted.
Infographic: Coronavirus numbers in Brazil and worldwide
“In no state in Brazil, our results indicate that the herd’s immunity is close to being achieved, underscoring the initial stage of the epidemic in Brazil today and the possibility that the situation will worsen unless other control measures are taken.” says the study
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The conclusions are present in a specific report produced by Brazil and signed by 59 specialists from the British university. According to the document, the disease is still out of control in Brazil. In the past week, as President Jair Bolsonaro continues to push for control measures to be eased, governors and mayors have already begun to study tougher measures of social distance.
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At the beginning of the epidemic, the rate of reproduction of the disease was between 3 and 4. In other words, on average, each person infected three or four others. Thanks to social distance measures, such as quarantine, that number has decreased. However, in Brazil, this number is still higher than 1. In European countries, it is already less than 1.
“A reproduction rate greater than 1 means that the epidemic is not yet under control and will continue to grow,” say the scientists.
Five states concentrate 80% of the cases
The report also notes that the disease is still in its early stages in Brazil, since the incidence of Covid-19 in each state is very different. Only five of the 27 units of the federation represent 81% of the cases: São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Ceará, Pernambuco and Amazonas.
Using a mathematical model, scientists calculate that in these states the percentage of the infected population varies from 3.3% in São Paulo to 10.6% in Amazonas. In all other states, less than 2.3% of the population would have been infected.
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Experts say social distance measures have worked in Brazil, but the decline in people’s movement is not the same as that found in other centers of the disease. An example is the Lombardy region in Italy, where most of the cases were concentrated in the country.
After the introduction of the “blocking” policy, mobility patterns decreased by 75% in the vicinity of the markets and pharmacies. In Brazil, on the other hand, this reduction was 21% in São Paulo. In Lombardy, the rate of reproduction of the disease has been reduced to 0.58. In São Paulo, the reproduction rate fell to 1.46, a number that is not enough to prevent Covid-19 growth.
“In general, although our study suggests that the measures implemented so far have had an impact in reducing disease transmission, it also highlights their insufficiency in controlling disease transmission and the need for more contact limitation measures, go beyond those established, to reduce the rate of reproduction of the disease in Brazil to less than 1 “, say the scientists.
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