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The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank had a meeting scheduled for the fourth and February of this week. In the expectation that the collegiate announces a new reduction of the basic tax of jures (Selic) at the majority of the odds that the cut will be 0.5 percentage point, but also expect 0.75 percentage point and, ainda, a little fatigue. imagining something more aggressive, like 1.0 percentage point.
Selic is in 3.75% a year, or less in the history of the country, and in the same case it has been taxed for 3% or for 2.75% per year, or it has not happened to coexist with negative royals, ou seja, abaixo it gives inflation. It is because, as with activities, this fails, in the absence of demand, we are seeing deflation, thus reducing prospects for the custodian of non-permanent life. Logo, a consensus is being formed that a forte reduced the basic oaths, now, there will be no impact on any one taken up again from the current moment, as a piora of the cengio de contgio e de los pandemia da Covid-19. Alm disso, a sada do Minister da Justia, Sergio Moro, and o das das tenses between o President Jair Bolsonaro e o Congresso e o Judicirio, we can aggravate or recessive table in the economy.
To conclude, the Top 5 forecasts, a group of five institutions that most successfully projected the weekly Focus bulletin, BC, this dropped 2%. The projects for non-fledged Selic varied between 2.5% and 2.75%. The President of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, has decided to consider several options regarding the possibility of negative negative statements in this year, such as Japan, Denmark and countries of the Euro Zone, where the nominal value is sworn. For this reason, two analysts ouvidos Pelo Corio are certain that the President of BC will need to specify a new letter to the Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, explaining why inflation at the bottom of the target of 2.5% is somewhat unpunished. “This time, by letter, it should not be a problem, because I inflate something positive, despite the recessive environment,” says Newton Rosa, chief economist at SulAmrica Investimentos.
He is reviewing these projects, which were forecast to be at 3.5% of GDP this year. “We are going to Mexico for something above 5% of the remainder, because to us it was not a relaxation of the social measures, from May, more, bare hair, as restries must be endowed in June, due to or increase number of deaths e contgios ”, Pontiff or specialist, who expects a cut of 0.5% from the next meeting of Copom and Selic to 3% not at the end of the year.
In spite of Campos Neto ter sinalizado ao market, past week, which could make new cuts in Selic nesse sense, analysts expected more caution from BC in this moment when a pandemic feared its increasingly severe effects in activity.
Recess
At the rate of Preos ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA-15), which was disclosed in the last quarter of February, it was negative in 0.01% in the first fortnight of April. “We are going to deflate it in April and in May, and if it has not been taken up again, we will still be able to deflate it in June,” warns Tore Sanchez, chief economist at Ativa Investimentos. He anticipates that the HICP will change in 1.8% of the year and he expects a cut of 0.75 percentage points in the Selic in this week of Copom hair. For him, I am not going to add or close to Selic at the current conjuncture to give a real negative oath. “Or a problem that was caused by strong cuts we swear not to be a bullet from Prata. There will be no stimulus to demand, because the hiatus of the product (different between the real GDP and the potential GDP) is very high, between 5% and 6%, or else, we are going to recess, ”he warns, who is reselling at the same time. no GDP for this year, currently at 2.75%.
To economist Alessandra Ribeiro, scia da Tendncias Consultoria, twist so that the Central Bank does not cut off my oaths in May and shows the most caution in not conducting monetary policy. “Or president of BC sinalizou or contrary, that there will be new cuts. I do not have to be aggressive because of the increase in two political cliffs and fiscais nesrio atual ”, he highlights. Pela sinalizao de Campos Neto, she is waiting for a haircut minus 0.5 point in this quarter and most of 0.25 percent point.
“Ainda achamos that or BC should not go for more aggressive movements. First of all, because we are afraid of relating to the effectiveness of the cut at a moment of uncertainty such as this. And, second, because the potential gives lower monetary policy, “he warns.
Em meio forte recesso na qual o pas est mergulhado, mesmo se or pas tiver I swear real negative, they can not stimulate activity, in the assessment of the economist-chief of MB Associados, Sergio Vale. “O BC must cut 0.5 ponto na Selic em maio and can cut even more em meio a essa crise. However, the negative swear, or spread (two banks between the swears that they pay them or that they charge two clients, including or profit) will continue to be higher, “he continued. For him, which Selic foresaw no year in 3.25%, at the greatest need of the market, there is no time “to give higher guarantees for the private entrepreneur for the companies.”
In spite of the economist-chief of the National Confederation of Commerce (CNC), Carlos Thadeu de Freitas Gomes, in spite of the cut, Selic still has a high rate, being able to pay 2% not last year. “Isso can mean a more expensive dollar, but it does not matter inflationary importance and can help export,” he highlights. How much more do you swear carem, more banks will be obliged to borrow, second ele.
Sem impact na atividade
Also with the basic tax of Juros (Selic) we are the least important in history, new cuts of the basic tax do not have a great impact in the economy, in the assessment of analysts, because the spreads do not fall as much as it is observed in the basic tax, even more or I govern zerando or Imposto sobre Operaes Financeiras (IOF) for you. “There is a large discrepancy in the market, which is very concentrated and, for that matter, the swears do not fall under the spot,” compares Alexandre Almeida, economist at CM Capital. The lembra that has governed given instruments to tempt to stimulate the credit market, as to reduce it to rent two compulsory deposits to prazo, for example, but not to a negative swearing center by climbing the long curve two swords, that this between 7% and 9%.
The nominee swears did not happen, they are compared to those of emerging countries, not this among the highest, more or a problem that the market is not continuing. “Na Espanha, or governo est agindo a ma supply of credit subsidized through public banks and development, something that needs to be appreciated not Brazil, pois os juros, l, or small entrepreneur arcar com custos, 1% a year ; and, here, to finance folha de pago, taxa was at 3.75% ”, compares or economist Jos Luis Oreiro, professor at the University of Braslia (UnB).
So you projected for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Brazil this year, this being constantly reviewed for Baixo. At mid-range market expectations for the Focus newsletter, for the Central Bank, which was reduced 11 times a week ago, I was expecting a 3.3% decline this year. This data is compared to that of the Fundo Monetrio Internacional (IMF), which is betting 5.3% of GDP on a regular basis, or of analysts who have begun to admit that it remains 10%, as Oreiro predicted. Our most pessimistic cenarios, like o do suo UBS, down to 10.1%.
The economist of CM expects a cut of 0.5 percentage point in Selic, agora, and outro, of 0.25 point. Nothing else. “We are foreseeing the oaths by filing in 3% this year and in 4% not in the year that we see. Or deflation center will not favor negative oaths to cedo ”, he affirms. Juliana Inhasz, an economist, professor at Insper, reads that I swear negative that it will be difficult to pay off the final consumer one time or that the credit ends up not paying for the consumer in two other costs that involve the financing operation. “This time, cutting Selic will not affect any economy. What an incua measure, because it does not demand. So you weigh this at home and this consuming less, and as companies, with so much uncertainty, hardly to invest. They need loans to finance or working capital ”, he highlights. (RH)
