:strip_icc()/i.s3.glbimg.com/v1/AUTH_59edd422c0c84a879bd37670ae4f538a/internal_photos/bs/2019/o/H/iKYgiBSCCmvUJzTF4M0w/trump.jpg)
[ad_1]
BBC News Brazil consulted international relations experts to explain expectations regarding the post-pandemic world order. They point out that the crisis is accelerating geopolitical trends that were already developing before the coronavirus, such as the fact that Washington has distanced itself from world leadership.
Tatiana Prazeres, Brazil’s foreign trade secretary and senior advisor to the director-general of the World Trade Organization (WTO), says the United States is more self-centered and less willing to lead an international response to the pandemic, which is opening up. space for the advance of the Chinese.
- Trump threatens China with new retaliation rates for coronavirus
“China is occupying a space generated by the retraction of Americans,” she says, who is a professor at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing. “There really is a risk of a geopolitical shift in that direction, and it is a result that depends more on what the Americans are not doing than what China is doing.”
A clear example of this movement, according to experts, is related to the transfer of resources to the World Health Organization (WHO).
Donald Trump announces suspension of contributions to WHO
The President of the United States, Donald Trump, announced the suspension of the country’s financial contribution to the WHO. He said the organization was wrong to face the pandemic and that “it is largely financed by the United States, but very focused on China.” After that, China announced that it will contribute an additional $ 30 million to WHO.
Former Brazilian ambassador to Washington Rubens Barbosa agrees that “it is Trump’s attitude towards politics that opens the space for China” and points out that they go against the postwar tradition of the United States.
“After the war, if it had not been for the United States, there would have been no reconstruction of Europe,” he said, referring to the Marshall Plan, which was the American plan for the reconstruction of allied European countries after World War II.
“Now, with this attitude, they are losing power and this creates an additional difficulty, because there is no one with their strength. China has another system, so there is a gap that we are seeing happening, with a lack of joint initiative, lack cooperation. ”
The United States was accused of “piracy” and “diversion” of teams that would go to Germany, France, and Brazil.
United States President Donald Trump criticized WHO during a press conference on April 7 – Photo: Alex Brandon / AP
In addition to what has been described as “theft” of contracts by Americans (which would make higher financial offers than those already signed between countries and suppliers), Trump resorted to a Korean War-era law in the 1950s, to ban 3M, an American company that produces masks, from exporting its medical products to other countries.
At the same time, China did what was called “mask diplomacy”: after controlling the coronavirus within its own borders, Beijing offered aid to countries on several continents to combat the disease. Italy received donations of medical supplies, test kits, and even a working group of Chinese doctors, leading to the hashtag #grazieCina (thanks to China, in Italian) to be successful on Italian social media.
The future of international politics in the United States depends, as Rubens Barbosa recalls, on the outcome of this year’s elections: whether President Donald Trump should be won, with his nationalist policy (summarized in the slogan “America first”), or Democratic candidate Joe Biden. In general, Republicans tend to defend more isolationist policies than Democrats, that is, look within the country and not prioritize global institutions and multilateral agreements.
So far, the former ambassador says China has shown more strength on the international stage. “Despite the criticism, despite the vulnerability, despite the slowdown in China’s growth, I think China today is better prepared than the United States to come out stronger.”
Historical decline of the economy.
With the pandemic, China’s economy fell 6.8% in the first quarter of 2020. It was the first decline in China’s GDP in the historical series that started in 1992.
And the disastrous effects of the coronavirus on the economies of European countries have also begun to advertise. Italy’s GDP fell 4.7% in the first quarter, the worst recorded in the historical series began in 1995.
France’s GDP contracted 5.8% in the first three months of this year, the biggest drop since 1949, when the country’s historical series begins. And the Spanish economy contracted 5.2%, the biggest drop in nearly a century. According to historians’ estimates, the last time a retraction of this size occurred in the country was after the Spanish Civil War (1936-1939).
What weighs against China
 /i.s3.glbimg.com/v1/AUTH_59edd422c0c84a879bd37670ae4f538a/internal_photos/bs/2019/W/6/VblXxvQEC7z2era0ktKQ/000-1bx4u1.jpg "Chinese President Xi Jinping during a 2019 press conference - Photo: Mark Schiefelbein / Pool / AFP")
Chinese President Xi Jinping during a 2019 press conference – Photo: Mark Schiefelbein / Pool / AFP
The Getúlio Vargas Guilherme Casarões Foundation professor of international politics also says that Chinese President Xi Jinping is trying to position himself “in a more assertive way in defense of multilateralism and international cooperation,” a move China had already been doing. , according to him. , since 2014.
“The pandemic opens a very clear opportunity for China to deepen this process.”
However, he notes that, to gain the trust of other countries, China faces the challenge of redressing the damage to its image caused by the start of the pandemic.
“Today is a fact and it is notorious that the Chinese authorities took a long time to react. Not only is China a dictatorship, but it has to do with the Communist Party’s own dynamics, it has a complex chain of command … it was, certainly a slow response. ”
China’s response, according to Casarões, lies precisely in this expansion of humanitarian aid and international cooperation in the area of health. The good thing for countries, according to him, is that, in a way, he pays the most closed policy in the United States.
On the other hand, he points out that, in this quest to clean up its image, China has taken authoritarian measures, such as censorship, to try to control the narrative about the virus.
“The downside to trying to clean up the image itself is that the Chinese government has begun to impose a series of censures on scientific research in China, especially research related to the origin of the virus. The government now has a lot of control over the study. of the origins, even so that the Chinese narrative is not compromised. ”
In recent days, China has rejected requests for an independent international investigation into the origin of the coronavirus. The Chinese government’s argument is that these demands are politically motivated and would divert China’s attention from fighting the pandemic.
Trump adopted a speech blaming China for the pandemic, saying the United States government is investigating rumors that the outbreak may have started at the virology institute in Wuhan, the Chinese city that was the first epicenter of the disease. The Chinese government has already responded to the charges and said the United States wants to confuse the population.
A study published in The Lancet in January by more than 20 researchers on the profile of covid-19 infected patients in Wuhan shows that 66% of surveyed patients had exposure to the city market.
Furthermore, another study published in the same journal by scientists from various countries stated that there is strong evidence that the virus appeared among wild animals.
Rubens Barbosa says China “will be the target” of Europe, the United States and other countries. “Countries will begin to want to sue China for the way they are dealing with the issue of the pandemic. There will be another front of friction that will appear on the international scene after the end of the pandemic.”
A European Union report accuses China of spreading misinformation about the crisis. The text says Chinese officials and state media cut off any mention of Wuhan as the source of the virus, and some state-controlled social media channels continued to spread the theory that the outbreak was related to the visit of US military personnel.
In the UK, a group of conservative MPs argue that Britain needs to better understand China’s economic ambitions and global role when the coronavirus crisis ends.
MP Tom Tugendhat, who chairs the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, says the group will not be anti-China, but will “explore opportunities to get involved” with the country and examine its economic goals. Tugendhat accused the Chinese Communist Party of putting its own survival above the survival of the people during the coronavirus outbreak.
The dispute between the United States and China will continue to rule the world after the pandemic, according to Casarões.
“It is a fight of a commercial nature, which entered the technological field, especially with regard to 5G, and today we are experiencing a very strong narrative dispute, about where the responsibility for what is happening should be placed,” he says. “We are seeing this strategy by Trump, by the extreme right-wing of the United States, and even by Bolsonaro’s supporters, of labeling the virus as a Chinese virus. This is part of trying to build this perspective of winners and losers, or good and evil”.
/i.s3.glbimg.com/v1/AUTH_59edd422c0c84a879bd37670ae4f538a/internal_photos/bs/2020/S/t/CQZ8mvQpqwZDgBGOEzaA -299-policy-29-2 reuters.jpg "April 29 - Chinese paramilitary police wear protective masks while cycling in Beijing, China - Photo: Thomas Peter / Reuters")
April 29 – Chinese paramilitary police wear protective masks while cycling in Beijing, China – Photo: Thomas Peter / Reuters
When talking about an eventual increase in China’s power, one of the discussions is about what this model of influence would be like.
Prazeres, who has lived in China since January 2019, says China does not reject the existing order (and wants to reform it), but also wants to create its own rules.
“China, to a certain extent, is reformist: it wants to reform the international order, the international rules, influence the dynamics of the existing organizations and the rules that were created in the postwar period, especially by the Americans. To a certain extent, it is Revisionist and looking to establish their own organizations, their rules, create new mechanisms that respond to their interests, and then they will have the Asian Bank for Infrastructure Investment and the New Silk Road (Belt and Road Initiative). ”
She says that the perception of the Chinese is that it is legitimate for the country to seek influence on the international scene corresponding to its economic weight in the world.
“China’s international performance is linked to the country’s goal to grow, end poverty and promote economic development, but there are other political agendas that are part of it. It is not just one thing.”
For Casarões, the Chinese model of power projection takes into account the sovereignty and particularities of the countries with which it is related.
“She does not impose her model on the world, but she does not have ideological or political prejudices to relate to anyone, from the most brutal dictatorships to the freest countries. She has a position more focused on economic interest,” he says.
Brazilian government officials and allies of President Jair Bolsonaro repeatedly criticized China for the new coronavirus pandemic.
/i .s3.glbimg.com / v1 / AUTH_59edd422c0c84a879bd37670ae4f538a / internal_photos / bs / 2019 / V / r / CZxDo8R2ayWrww0HJVMw / bolsonaro-e-trump.jpg "President Jair Bolsonaro and US President Donald Trump during a meeting in Osaka; both are against the Nicolás Maduro regime - Photo: Alan Santos / PR")
President Jair Bolsonaro and US President Donald Trump during a meeting in Osaka; both are against the Nicolás Maduro regime – Photo: Alan Santos / PR
Deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro, the president’s son, launched a message on social media saying that “it is China’s fault.” The speech was repudiated by the Chinese embassy.
In another episode, Education Minister Abraham Weintraub posted a message on Twitter implying that the pandemic fulfilled China’s wishes to “take over the world.”
Experts heard by BBC News Brazil say that, amid the dispute between the two powers, Brazil should do everything possible not to buy a fight with either side.
“We have to expand relations with everyone. Brazil has to defend its own interests. We must not take sides, as we are doing now. We must have independence, solve each problem in accordance with the Brazilian interest,” says former ambassador Rubens. Barbosa
Tatiana Prazeres says it is a difficult time and that balanced positions are “especially necessary”.
For Casarões, “looking coldly, without any ideological problems involved, there would be no point in going on a collision course at this time.”
“I didn’t do it before the crisis, but now it does it even less. China is a strategic factor for Brazil and for the economic recovery in the future.”
He says he considers buying a fight with Brazil’s main trading partner “strategic stupidity,” but says it is a political strategy.
“It is one of the strategies that the Bolsonaro government, weakened as it is, ends up creating to keep the base mobilized. I see this fight with China as part of Bolsonaro’s strategy inside, somewhat populist. This anti-China narrative serves to continue to mobilize support on the streets, on WhatsApp and on social media. ”
