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Traders on the main shopping streets of the city of São Paulo await official guidance on the protocols for the reopening and do not know what the process of resuming activities will be like, but they are already sure: the layoffs are underway and many companies will not return to open their doors.
“Retail trade in the capital of São Paulo employs 1 million people. We are in the middle of the fire. Only when the firefighters go out will we know the extent of the damage, “says Altamiro Carvalho, economist at FecomercioSP.
According to him, the worst moment of the retail sale in the last decades was in the recession. “Generally speaking, at every negative point of GDP [Produto Interno Bruto], we have 1 million unemployed. Therefore, we can expect at least 5 million layoffs by the end of the year in the country. ” The World Bank projects a 5% decrease in Brazilian GDP.
According to the leaders of the street trade entities, although the general scenario is negative, the size of the coup varies widely.
In the central region, 15 thousand companies form the largest and most popular retail centers in Brazil. There are the Brás region (strong in bed, table and bath products), Santa Ifigênia (electronics), Rua 25 de Março (jewelry and imported products in general), the Bom Retiro neighborhood (clothing, especially wholesale, which supplies merchants from the south to the northeast) and the Liberdade neighborhood, marked by Japanese culture (restaurants and imported).
Before the coronavirus crisis, which led to the suspension of non-essential activities from March 24, the region employed 200,000 people, according to Univinco (União dos Lojistas da 25 e adjacências, which monitors downtown São Paulo), in addition of providing work to thousands of informal workers (an estimated 200,000 more).
The consolidation of the data made by Univinco with entities in each of these regions indicates that 100,000 publications, direct and indirect, may occur with the pandemic.
Microregion data is often precarious, and getting it now is more complicated. Trade associations seek information in direct contact, something that does not exist during isolation. Many traders also don’t want to give details on the difficulties now.
This is the case of the companies that operate on 25 de Março street and its surroundings. The largest open-air shopping center in the country, receives, on normal days, around 400 thousand customers and provides work for 40 thousand people.
“Who already had the rope around his neck closed. Who gave collective vacations does not know what to do because they are already ending. Government measures to help smaller companies stop, “says Claudia Urias, director of Univinco. According to her, in the region of 25, at least 18 points have already been closed.
Some traders say they can hold out until June, but with difficulty. The Rizzo Embalagens e Festa store, which sells accessories and costumes for all kinds of events, is one of them. Considered a big business in the region, it employed 110 people before the crisis. It adopted the government MP (provisional measure), reduced the workload of workers by 50%, and still had to fire 30.
“We managed to invoice 20% of the total because we already had electronic commerce, but after June it will be difficult,” says Luis Brancher, manager of Rizzo.
At Bom Retiro, a fashion hub where about 30 buses from other states landed before the pandemic a day, 12 outlets can no longer reopen, according to a survey by the group of commercial cameras in the center. The impact there extends in many ways because, of the 1,500 commercial points, 1,200 belong to the manufacturers themselves.
“The clientele came from the northeast, north and south, but now there are no prospects for anything. Distribution to other states simply stopped, ”says Nelson Tranquezi of CDL do Bom Retiro.
Inventories at least won’t be “giants” at the end of the pandemic, he says, because production was falling. Unlike March 25, which had a satisfactory Carnival, the last positive month for Bom Retiro was November, Black Friday.
“When it is cold, sales improve. This year we will not have Mother’s Day and, apparently, not even cold, “he says.
The sector closed some specific lease and contract negotiations to ease the cost burden.
In the Liberdade region, known for its oriental restaurants and cosmetics and decoration stores, it is estimated that six points definitely closed their doors.
“The situation is horrible, people are laying off many employees, they are partially paying the rent. Those who do not deliver can close, “says Alexandre Ortiz, president of the São Paulo Commercial Association at the Center.
Merchants in the central area of the capital are organizing to defend the gradual reopening at the town hall. They will propose a partial operation, such as reduced hours, no activity on Saturdays and with safety protocols that include customer temperature measurement, use of masks and alcohol gel by employees and consumers, as well as minimum distance rules of 1, 5 meter
“No one is against isolation, but if we don’t start working, we go to the hole. As the return, in any case, will be modest, we will not obtain even 50% of what we had invoiced, “says Joseph Riachi, from the chamber of Santa Ifigênia, an area that sells electronic products.
Traders at the Gabriel Monteiro da Silva shopping center, in the Jardim Paulistano neighborhood, have used the provisional measure that reduces hours and wages. But even in this area, known for selling interior architecture and cutting-edge design products, layoffs occur.
Of 30 companies consulted by the local association, at the request of Sheet, 15 said they resigned, 21 said they appealed to the MP (some of them in addition to having already resigned). If the isolation lasts another month, 15 said they should resign. Only one of the consultants said they would close the doors in this case.
In the upper middle class Jardins and Itaim Bibi neighborhoods, where Oscar Freire and João Cachoeira streets are located, there are no data on major layoffs or company closings. For now, it is estimated that three companies have closed their activities.
In Jardins, where global designer brands occupy a large chunk of Oscar Freire, there is a commercial movement to gather dozens of tenants, including some from Itaim Bibi, in a high-end market.
“The brands are going to suffer a little. With dollars at almost R $ 6 and isolation, who will buy clothes to go where? We will not have big parties, lunches, events, happy hours. Here in Brazil, products cost twice as much as abroad, but who is going to travel? ”says Rosangela Lyra, president of the Associação Comercial dos Jardins and former director of Dior in Brazil for 28 years.
According to her, the prospect may even be positive for commerce in the post-isolation neighborhood, since the public that used to buy in shopping malls may prefer to go to the street at first, for fear of closed places.
“We call this moment NNN, our new normal,” says the former Dior, who directs actions on WhatsApp groups in the region.
