Moro’s resignation: you cannot ‘underestimate Bolsonaro’, says Brazilianista

Despite the negative impact of Sergio Moro’s resignation on the government, “Bolsonaro cannot be underestimated,” Brazilian Anthony Pereira, director of the Brazilian Institute at King’s College, in the United Kingdom, told the BBC.

Pereira acknowledges, however, that the president is weakened by the dispute with the former Minister of Justice and Public Security and his political survival will depend on how his constituency will react.

“I do not want to underestimate Bolsonaro as a political phenomenon. Bolsonarism is an organic force in the country. In fact, Bolsonaro is weakened and his political survival will depend on how his constituency will react. It is too early to predict this behavior. But there is no doubt. that the president will have a challenge ahead, “he says.

Moro resigned from the post on Friday morning (April 24) after the dismissal of his right hand, Maurício Valeixo, from the direction of the Federal Police.

In announcing his departure, the former minister fired criticism at Bolsonaro. According to him, the president insisted on the change of command of the corporation, without presenting acceptable causes.

Moro said that “there were no conditions to persist without working conditions” and that the political indications “are not acceptable.”

The former justice chief, who left the federal judge’s career to accept the minister’s post, also said Bolsonaro wanted to access confidential intelligence reports and information from the PF.

And he also said that he did not sign the Valeixo exoneration decree published in the Official Gazette (DOU), despite the fact that his name appears in the document, which implies that his signature was used without his consent.

Bolsonarismo x Lavajatismo

Pereira recalls that since the beginning of the government “there have always been tensions” between two currents that chose Bolsonaro: on the one hand, the Bolsonarista, “concerned about cultural and ideological issues” and, on the other, the lavajatista “against corruption, who I wanted the investigations to continue. “

“Bolsonaro could have won the battle with Moro when he managed to fire the director general of the Federal Police, but not the war. Many people who supported the government for the symbol that Moro represents, the fight against corruption, will be very disappointed,” he says. .

Late in the afternoon on Friday, Bolsonaro made a statement in which he responded to the accusations of his former assistant.

The president accused Moro of conditioning the exchange in the PF to a place in the STF (Federal Supreme Court), which the former minister denied in his official Twitter account.

Bolsonaro also said he did not have to ask for authorization to change the director of the corporation. “I do not have to ask for authorization to change a director or any other who is in the hierarchical pyramid of the Executive,” he said.

“The day I have to submit to a subordinate, I am no longer President of the Republic,” he added.

But Pereira says he has doubts about whether Bolsonaro’s attacks on Moro will undermine the image the former minister built.

“I don’t think these accusations go down well with the president’s knowledgeable supporters, those who are in favor of the letter of the law.”

More important, according to Pereira, are Moro’s accusations that Bolsonaro tried to intervene politically in the Federal Police, which, according to him, makes it appear that “the government was not committed to fighting corruption, but to protecting the clan of the president”. It represents a defeat for the government and that should concern any government official. “

“Many people see Moro as a representative of impartiality and independence, despite the fact that he is a controversial figure. Moro speaks of Bolsonaro’s willingness to intervene politically in the FP. This makes it seem that the nucleus of the government is very much more interested in using corruption against enemies than using a broad, multi-party and impartial project to investigate all the accused, all the suspects. ”

New political rival

Pereira recalls that, although it is difficult to predict the future, “it may be that Bolsonaro is strengthening a great political rival.”

“The political vacuum that Bolsonaro occupied was due in part to Lava Jato. This created the situation for Bolsonaro to win the 2018 campaign. Bolsonaro won more than Moro. He acquired all the prestige and popularity of Moro, but maintained control of the Executive, including blocking the initiatives of the now former minister, “he says.

“Moro is now out of government. He is viable as a candidate and opponent of the current government. And it may be that in the future Bolsonaro will have remorse for that decision because he will create a new rival that could threaten his political future,” he adds.

“I would not rule out the possibility of him being a candidate, since Moro left the career of federal judge and became a political actor.”

Combined crises

Pereira also highlights what he describes as the unique situation of Brazil in the world, since the country faces several crises at the same time.

“Brazil faces three crises at the same time: health, economic and political. I do not see any other country in such a severe situation. The country has become synonymous with instability, a sin that was previously associated with its neighbors, like Argentina” .

In this “duel of giants”, Pereira also draws attention to the “integrity of the institutions”.

“What is at stake is not Bolsonaro’s political survival, but the integrity of Brazilian institutions. This goes beyond the government itself, the political situation itself. The achievement of FP autonomy was not achieved overnight morning. This is one of the pillars of the democratic rule of law. No one is above the law. We no longer live in the Middle Ages or under the yoke of absolutist monarchs, “he concludes.

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