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- Jose Carlos Cueto
- BBC World News
Credit, fake images
The confrontation between the Ethiopian government and the FLPT in the north of the country has lasted more than a week
A year after receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, Abiy Ahmed Ali, Ethiopia’s prime minister, now sees his country heading towards civil war.
This is what analysts and observers fear from the armed conflict that began more than a week ago in the East African country and has so far left hundreds dead and thousands displaced seeking refuge in Sudan.
In Ethiopia, the second most populous country in Africa, the federal army is facing troops linked to the Popular Liberation Front (FLPT), the nationalist party that rules the Tigray region in northern Ethiopia.
Tensions between the federal government and the Tigray region have risen in recent months, but recent hostilities have fueled fears that a civil war threatens stability in the Horn of Africa, one of the most turbulent and strategic areas on the planet. .
This Saturday (11/14) the confrontation worsened, with the firing of rockets against Eritrea, neighboring Ethiopia.
According to Tigray leader Debretsion Gebremichael, his forces fired the projectiles because Ethiopian soldiers were using an Eritrean airport to attack the separatist region.
On Twitter, Abiy Ahmed denied the charges.
Residents of Asmara, the capital of Eritrea, reported hearing loud explosions. So far there have been no reports of casualties.
BBC News Mundo, the BBC’s Spanish news service, explains this conflict in five points.
1. How the armed conflict started
On November 4, Abiy Ahmed Ali announced a military offensive against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.
The prime minister justified the offensive by accusing Tigray’s troops of attacking a federal military base near Mekele, the capital of the region.
Since then, there have been armed clashes between the two sides, with airstrikes carried out by the federal army.
On Thursday, the NGO Amnesty International reported on a massacre that occurred on the night of November 9, when “tens or probably hundreds of people were stabbed and killed” in Mai-Kadra, west of Tigray.
Amnesty International has not been able to name the perpetrators of the massacre, but has testimonies pointing to forces loyal to the FLPT after losing a battle to federal troops.
The Abiy Ahmed government also blamed Tigray for the crimes, but the region has denied the charges.
Credit, fake images
Several Ethiopians donated blood to the wounded in Tigray
On the other hand, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has announced that it is collaborating with Sudan to help more than 7,000 Ethiopian refugees who on 11 November had fled Tigray.
Obtaining information is difficult. Telephone lines and the Internet are down and journalists’ access is restricted.
2. What is the background to the conflict?
For decades, the FLPT was a dominant party in Ethiopia, but everything changed with the arrival of Abiy Ahmed to power in 2018.
Elected as a “reformist leader”, the new prime minister accused former government officials of corruption and human rights abuses and expelled the main FLPT politicians from the central government.
Credit, fake images
Peace accords between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2018 did not comply with the FLPT
Abiy Ahmed dissolved the multi-ethnic coalition that ruled the country until then and created the Party for Prosperity (PP), which increased political tension.
The FLPT objected, claiming that this action would divide the country and refused to be part of the new alliance.
She was also not satisfied with the outcome of the peace negotiations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, after 20 years of war, considering that her interests had been neglected.
Tensions escalated last September, when Tigray held regional elections, despite the elections being postponed by the federal government due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
“The Abiy Ahmed government failed to recognize the legitimacy of the Tigray elections, cut ties and froze federal budgets,” Ahmed Soliman, an expert on African horns at Chatham House, a London-based think tank, tells BBC News Mundo, the BBC’s Spanish-language news service.
Credit, fake images
Tigray held regional elections in defiance of the federal government
“He also accused them of inciting violence in the country,” adds Soliman.
The FLPT even threatened independence, citing an article in the federal constitution that allows “the unconditional right to self-determination, including secession.”
3. What is the probability of a civil war?
A possible ceasefire does not appear to be on the way.
“We have prepared our army, militias and special forces. If we have to fight, we are ready to win,” said Debretsion Gebremichael, president of the FLPT, at the start of the confrontation.
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The world is watching with concern the possibility of a civil war in Ethiopia
“They crossed the last red line,” Abiy Ahmed said before announcing the attack.
“The government can calculate that an intense military offensive will put pressure on the Tigray leaders, avoid a large-scale conflict in the long term and give it an advantage in the negotiations,” Soliman explains.
However, the expert warns of the “terrifying prospect” that the government’s intentions are to eliminate the leaders of the FLPT, given that “the great, sophisticated and powerful military history of this party could lead to a much greater and prolonged conflict” . , he adds.
4. What is Abiy Ahmed Ali’s responsibility in the conflict?
Abiy Ahmed Ali received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for his efforts to end 20 years of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
He came to power with the intention of reforming, unifying and modernizing the country. Now, he is immersed in an armed conflict with a difficult way out.
Credit, fake images
Abiy Ahmed Ali received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for his efforts to end 20 years of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea
“I think the two sides could do more to prevent this escalation, especially in the last year. Neither side has taken a position really open to dialogue,” says Soliman.
“The fact that the federal government does not recognize the Tigray elections and cut its budget has not contributed to the negotiations,” adds the expert.
However, Soliman warns that the structural problems and the political and ethnic divisions that now emerge from the conflict are the product of “historical situations unresolved for years, before Abiy Ahmed came to power.”
5. What are the repercussions of the conflict in the region?
Several world powers, such as the United States and China, maintain military bases in the Horn of Africa due to its volatile history and strategic location as a trade route.
And experts consider that peace in Ethiopia is essential for the stability of this region.
“Eritrea, which borders Tigray and whose de facto president, Isaias Afwerki is close to Abiy Ahmed, could also drag them into a confrontation against the FLPT”, analyzes the think tank International Crisis Group.
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Thousands of civilians sought refuge in Sudan after the outbreak of the conflict in Tigray
“The dispute could affect Sudan, a country that is also going through another political transition,” Soliman adds.
Experts fear that a major humanitarian crisis may be emerging, forcing migrants to travel to other parts of the world, such as Europe.
“It is still possible to avoid this scenario if the parties are pressed for an urgent ceasefire. They must realize that there is no way of a quick victory and must start negotiations even though both are considered illegitimate,” he concludes. The specialist.
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