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Researchers at the UK government’s meteorology center predict that 2021 will be slightly colder than 2020 worldwide, but it will still be one of the six warmest years on record.
The La Niña weather phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean will cause temperatures to drop, but greenhouse gases will continue to be the biggest influence on global climate.
The researchers say the world is likely about 1 ° C warmer than it was in the pre-industrial era. It will be the seventh year in a row that it will be near or above this mark.
According to projections from the British Meteorological Center, the Earth’s temperature in 2021 is likely to be 0.91 ° C to 1.15 ° C higher than it was in the years 1850-1900, with an average estimate of 1 , 03 ° C.
Or efeito La Niña
La Niña develops when strong winds blow warm waters from the Pacific surface away from South America and into the Philippines.
The result of this is that the colder waters of the ocean floor end up rising to the surface of the sea and reducing the temperatures there.
The phenomenon is expected to cause a drop of 1 ° C or 2 ° C, which will likely be enough to prevent 2021 from setting a new high temperature record.
The researchers say that the impact of a natural cooling event like La Niña, while significant, is overshadowed by warming caused by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Hot conditions can lead to prolonged droughts and water shortages
Image: BBC
“It is unlikely that the global temperature for 2021 will be that of a record year due to the current influence of La Niña, but it will be much warmer than previous years that the phenomenon had, such as 2011 and 2000, due to global warming”, He says. Adam Scaife, Head of Long-Range Forecast at the UK Weather Center.
There was a strong La Niña in 1999-2000, but global temperatures have risen by 0.4 ° C in subsequent years. This is in accordance with the estimate of warming of 0.2ºC per decade, attributed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to human activity.
“The variability of the La Niña / l Niño cycle is the second most important factor in determining the Earth’s temperature, but it is a factor attenuated by the effect of increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” says meteorologist Nick Dunstone, from the UK Climate Center.
The hottest years
The British institution says its successful experience in forecasting previous annual temperatures gives it confidence in the projections for next year.
A year ago, the agency estimated that 2020 would be between 0.99 ° C and 1.23 ° C warmer than pre-industrial levels. Data from January to October this year indicate that the annual temperature will be 1.17 ° C above the 1850-1900 average.
2016 is still the hottest year on record, with 2020 competing for second place with 2019.
According to an interim assessment by the World Meteorological Organization, the six warmest years on world records since 1850 occurred after 2015. The Met Office expects 2021 to overtake 2018 and rank sixth.
