20% of federal government servers have functions that machines can perform, study says

The researcher says that identifying the tasks that can be replaced by machines can help the government determine the skills needed to requalify current servers and also for future hires.

The study is based on the construction of algorithms capable of predicting the propensity to automate each function and thus increase productivity and reduce costs in the public service.

The authors’ starting point is that the public sector is lagging behind automation trends in the private sector.

They analyzed the roles of 521,700 federal executive officials. This is the total number of federal government employees with a workload equal to or greater than 40 hours a week in 2017, according to data from the Integrated Human Resources Administration System (Siape).

The survey found that more than 100,000 are in occupations with a high propensity for automation, that is, just over 20%.

Considering all workloads, the number of executive officers at the end of 2017 reached 634.1 thousand. Today, with retirements and fewer skills to replace employees, that number has dropped to 601,900, according to the Statistical Personnel Panel.

Occupations most likely to be automated have lower levels of education and lower wages in common.

Therefore, the participation of this group in the payroll is lower: they represent R $ 595 million of the total of more than R $ 5 billion of the monthly payroll of the Federal Executive for 2017. This is equivalent to just over 11%.

With a greater propensity for automation, they appear in the first technical positions of audiovisual systems, in addition to civil construction workers, such as owner, bricklayer, painter and carpenter.

The average remuneration of these professionals is below the average of R $ 9,913 for the total occupations analyzed.

“In the case of the bricklayer, automation can come through innovations in construction processes, such as the more intensive use of precast, or processes that are not yet economically viable, such as large-scale 3D printing,” says Adamczyk.

Most of the civil servants in charge of masonry are already retired, but today there are more than 200 civil servants in active with this function, mainly linked to federal universities, according to the Statistical Panel of Personnel.

At the other extreme, with the lowest risks of substitution by artificial intelligence, are the roles of researchers (in engineering, health, social sciences, education), criminalist, biologist, manager of health services, and clinical psychologist.

Most of these functions have salaries above the average of R $ 9,913 for the total occupations analyzed.

The authors point out that the most common activities among these researchers are those that involve the development of new materials, products, processes and methods.

These are functions that “are on the frontier of knowledge and far from allowing standardization in their processes, given the high complexity of the tasks and the need for elements of creativity and innovation to be carried out.”

Professionals such as economists, sociologists, geographers, biologists, psychologists and anthropologists also appear to have little propensity for automation, in addition to other functions that “play central roles in the development of automation technologies themselves.”

“The trend is to replace more repetitive tasks that involve simpler decision making. For example, calculating and returning change, taking an order, transmitting basic information, completing forms and spreadsheets. Higher skilled occupations will be more difficult to do. automate to perform complex, abstract, non-routine tasks that require creativity, negotiation, persuasion and attention to people or teams, “says Adamczyk.

The researcher considers that an occupation prone to automation does not necessarily mean that it will cease to exist.

“It means that you will be able to take advantage of the introduction of new technologies, either to complement and improve the productivity of workers, or to completely reform this occupation.”

‘Rigidity‘ public sector

Among the executive bodies, the Ministry of Education is the one with the highest number of occupations with a high propensity for automation: 78 of the 272 that make up the body.

Among them are administrative assistant, office assistant, library assistant. The Ministry of Health ranks second, with 26 of its 129 occupations highly prone to automation.

The authors note that the public sector is more rigid in adapting the workforce to changes in technology and that, therefore, there is a gap relative to the private sector.

“While the private sector has the flexibility to adjust to technological changes through the hiring, firing and relocation of employees, with the price mechanism as a signal, the public sector is more rigid to adjust its workforce to technological changes “.

Adamczyk points out that half of federal government employees will be able to retire in the next 20 years and that this represents a massive outflow of knowledge that is difficult to replace, as well as higher spending on inactive employees.

In this context, he says, the research results “may foster discussion about new skills and qualifications needed to retrain current servers and hire new servers in the future.”

“Automation technologies should be seen as allies of Brazilian society for the continuity of the public services provided, the improvement of quality and the reduction of costs, in that order”, says the researcher.

It is important to remember that public servants today have job stability guaranteed by the Constitution, which provides for the loss of office only in very specific situations, such as in the event of conviction without the possibility of recourse to the courts.

However, the rules of the public function are under discussion and may be changed by the National Congress.

The government of President Jair Bolsonaro sent an administrative reform to the Legislature, which aims to change the hiring rules and career progression of future public servants, including facilitating dismissal, by proposing the end of stability for public servants who They are not in the so-called typical state careers (to be defined, according to proposal).

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