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Storm areas this afternoon on BR-472 between Itaqui and São Borja | Rosalos / Twitter
The city of Paso de los Libres, separated only by the Uruguay River from Uruguaiana, next to the western border of Rio Grande do Sul, had a strong storm this Friday afternoon (29).
The airport of the Argentine town (SARL) in its METAR meteorological bulletin reported gusts of 67 knots or 124 km / h during the 3:08 storm. There was also a storm on the Brazilian side of the border, but the severity of the storm in Uruguaiana was not the same and the wind gusts at Rubem Berta airport were 33 knots or 61 km / h. The São Borja National Meteorology Institute station registered a wind speed of 70.2 km / h.
TIME | Storm this afternoon in Uruguaiana. In the video, an example of the danger of energized cables on streets and sidewalks in storms. Video submitted by Emerson Nunes. pic.twitter.com/sL9iS3dsg7
– MetSul.com (@metsul) January 30, 2021
MetSul Meteorologia warns that the western region of Rio Grande do Sul has a high risk of thunderstorms this Saturday. The data analyzed suggests the possibility that some storms alone could be strong to severe with very heavy rains with high volumes in a short period, in addition to local gales and occasional hail in some places. Cities in the risk area include Quaraí, Uruguaiana, Itaqui, Alegrete, Maçambará, Barra do Quaraí, São Borja and other nearby municipalities. Watch the MetSul WRF model projections for late afternoon and early Saturday night (30) with intense instability in western Rio Grande do Sul.
It will be a weekend of great instability in Rio Grande do Sul with a very high risk of locally intense rains and gale-force storms, some strong to intense with potential for damage. A low-pressure center that will advance between central Argentina and Uruguay should reinforce instability in Rio Grande do Sul, especially on Sunday.
It is important to note that these severe weather events tend to be predominantly isolated and that it is not possible to predict which exact points may be affected far in advance, but only to delineate the regions of greatest risk. It is not uncommon for severe storms at this time of year to affect only one part of a city, on the neighborhood scale, without causing disturbances in other parts of the same municipality.
The same happens with these very intense to extreme rain events that have reached Rio Grande do Sul in recent days. The probability of occurrence of these extreme rain events can be anticipated days or hours in advance, but it is not possible to predict which cities will be affected due to highly localized events. In municipalities with a larger territorial dimension, in this type of situation, it is not uncommon to see rainfall close to 100 mm in a storm in part of the city and in places not too distant within the same city, little or no rain.
Numerical models that generate volume projections, furthermore, cannot accurately predict such isolated extreme rain events, so they predict volumes of 15mm to 20mm for a day in a given municipality and eventually, for a storm, it ends raining 100 mm. Meteorologists who see the macro scenario of the atmosphere are able to warn of this risk of events because they do not limit themselves to observing numerical projections of model rainfall, paying attention to the general conditions of the atmosphere that indicate the risk of extreme episodes of localized precipitation. . .
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