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Exactly a decade ago, in 2011, the initiative to restore democracy in the country was again thwarted by ending the long military regime.
Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), came to power in 2015 with the first national elections since the transfer of power to a civilian government. The NLD has run the country for five years, sharing power with a constitutionally strong military.
But the goal is to hold the national elections on November 7, 2020. Suu Kyi’s party, the NLD, came to power in the second term with a major victory in that election.
The army-backed opposition party has denied the allegations in a statement calling for by-elections. There has been tension in recent weeks.
The first session of the new government’s parliament was scheduled for Monday. But that same day, the army seized power and captured Suu Kyi and President Mint. Then a state of emergency was declared for a year throughout the country. But will the junta regime return to Myanmar again? What future awaits the country? And now or why the coup? The answers to these questions have been sought in the BBC analysis.
Why the hit now?
It is easy to explain why the time has come. Jonathan Head of the BBC South Asia says the first session of parliament was supposed to take place on Monday, and if it had, the results would have been certain. But as a result of the coup it will no longer be.
Although Suu Kyi, who played a silent role in the 2016 genocide against the Rohingya Muslim minority, has been widely criticized internationally, she is very popular in the country. His party fared worse than expected according to opinion polls, which saw him win about 60 percent of the vote.
‘Trump-style’ fraud accusations in voting
Shortly after the results were announced, the army-backed opposition Union, Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) refused to accept the results, citing vote manipulation. They couldn’t show any proof.
A statement signed by the country’s acting president, Mint Suu Kyi, after the military coup, reiterated the same accusations. Former General Suu Kyi was Vice President of Myanmar. The army imposed a one-year state of emergency on Suu Kyi as interim president after she took power on Monday.
“There were major irregularities in the voter list for the November 8, 2020 national elections,” Sue said in a statement. The Electoral Commission has not been able to solve this problem ”. However, they have very little evidence to support this accusation.
As happened in the November presidential elections in the United States. The Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, has consistently made unsubstantiated accusations of ‘vote stealing’. In the end, he did not accept defeat.
Phil Robertson, deputy director for the Asia region at Human Rights Watch (HRW), said: “Aung San Suu Kyi has won a landslide victory.
“The allegations of voter fraud are very similar to the ‘Trumpian’ allegations. Accusations of vote manipulation without evidence ”.
The official described the military coup as “indescribable.” “What does it mean to lose power?” He said. The answer is no. “
Protests in Japan against the military coup in Myanmar. Photo: Reuters
The army is ashamed
The army-backed Union, Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) received very few votes in the November national elections. However, the dominant position of the military in Myanmar politics has not diminished. This is because the country’s controversial constitution, enacted during the junta government in 2007, gives the military broad powers.
According to the constitution, a quarter of the seats in Myanmar’s parliament are assigned to the military. In addition, the army will always be in charge of three important ministries, such as the Interior, Defense and Border Security.
And until this constitution is amended, the military will continue to play an influential role in the country’s politics.
It is almost impossible for the NLD government to amend the constitution. Because, to amend the constitution, you must get 75 percent of the support of the parliament. With at least 25 percent of the seats held by the military, it is almost impossible to get the support you need.
So why the hit? He went on to point out another reason behind the country’s former journalist Aye Min Thant. He told the Yangon BBC that the army was embarrassed and ashamed of the choice.
“They (the military) cannot accept this rate. Those whose relatives are in the military, even those who voted against it.”
Min Thant added: “We must also understand the position of the army in Myanmar. Aung San Suu Kyi is often referred to as the ‘mother’ of Myanmar in the international media. And the army believes they are the ‘father of the nation.’
“That is why the military considers it their right and duty when it comes to governing the country.” As a result of the vote, the glory of that army ‘father of the nation’ has diminished.
Furthermore, “international trade in Myanmar has become freer in recent years. Not like before. The military, in particular, sees outsiders as a threat. “
Journalist Min Thant also believes that the military may be trying to do something about the coronavirus epidemic and international concerns that the Rohingya will not be able to vote in the November elections. However, the blow still surprised him.
Army checkpoints on the way to parliament in the capital, Nay Pyi Taw, after the Myanmar military seized power. Photo: Reuters
What happens next
Many political analysts still do not understand exactly why the military organized the coup. Because, it doesn’t seem like it’s of special benefit to them.
Gerard McCarthy, a postdoctoral fellow at the Asian Research Institute at the National University of Singapore, said: “It also provides protection.”
“Now, according to their announcement, they will lose other partners outside of China if they hold power for a year. This would damage the military’s business interests and at the same time increase the risk of mass protests in the country. The millions of voters that have led to Suu Kyi and her party, the NLD, come to power for another term could start protests. “
The military has now staged a coup in hopes of improving the position of its backing party, the USDP, in the upcoming elections. But even then, McCarthy believes there are many risks.
Phil Robertson of Human Rights Watch said the coup would put Myanmar at risk of being singled out again in the international arena. At the same time, anger is spreading among the people of the country.
“I don’t think the people of Myanmar will give up,” he said. They do not want to return to the military government. They see Suu Kyi as the greatest shield against the return of the military government. “
The official said it was still possible to resolve the current crisis through talks. However, he acknowledged that their numbers were not enough to defeat the government of President Conte.
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