Brexit may not be at the top of anyone’s inbox right now, but the clock is ticking the UK’s current transition period with the European Union (EU), which allows the UK to operate as if it was more or less it remains a member state while both parties negotiate their future relationship. This expires on December 31.
It is well documented that the pandemic has hindered these negotiations, since the representatives have been unable to meet in person. The talks, as they continue, are stalled at a standstill, meaning that breaching Brexit without a deal remains the logical conclusion of this saga, now in its fifth year.
Both sides remain committed to reaching an agreement, but both sides have red lines that are incompatible with each other. The EU insists that if the UK wants duty-free access to the EU’s huge internal market, it must commit to obeying certain EU laws. The United Kingdom says that the EU makes unreasonable demands and does not respect its sovereignty.
Previously, some Brexit hardliners suggested that the only way to get Brussels to move is to demonstrate that Britain is not only willing to withdraw, but will prosper if it does. Arguably, a version of this strategy previously had some degree of impact when the talks closed in previous negotiations, especially when Johnson managed to renegotiate the initial Brexit deal he had inherited from his predecessor, Theresa May.
“If Brexit is second on our list of priorities, imagine how far it is from the EU member states,” says Anand Menon, professor of European politics at King’s College London. “All these things about Brussels are better prepared, compared to 1.8 billion euros [$2.1 trillion] they just signed, it’s a small beer. ”
The pandemic remains a much more pressing emergency for the 27-nation bloc. “We are focused on the recovery of the European Union, that is the priority,” said an EU diplomat who is not authorized to speak in the registry. “When you spend four days with the heads of every EU government discussing billions of euros, you start to see why Brexit is no longer on our radar. Unfortunately, the British are too selfish to see that.” ”
Others in Brussels believe last week’s budget deal marked a major step forward in EU confidence, showing that if the bloc can unite on something as controversial as money, it can do so on external threats like Russia, the rise of China, political instability. in America and of course Brexit.
“I think it showed that integration is alive and well, and that things could be easier without the British sitting around the table trying to stop everything,” said an EU official working on Brexit policy but not sure. allowed him to speak on the record. “I think it also showed that the Franco-German partnership is really at work. They can credibly claim that through the mutualization of EU debt, they pushed the integration project in the most significant way for years. I think now there is a growing awareness that in light of the new cold war, the uncertainty of the United States, Europeans are safer working together. ”
The UK has previously said that it would like the Brexit negotiations to conclude in the autumn. This does not leave much time to reach an agreement, and it is not clear how much political capital Brussels will be willing to spend to achieve the agreement.
“It is true that an agreement on MFP and the recovery fund gives the EU27 [member states] more room for Brexit, but they won’t let it dominate their time or their thinking, “says Georgina Wright, principal investigator for the Brexit team at the Government Institute.” The EU focuses on economic recovery, the role of Member States in EU decision-making, the climate and the rule of law. Not in the UK. ”
This could upset the Brexiteers in London, who remain furious at the EU’s demands for a trade deal and think Johnson needs to play hard with Brussels. However, as the clock approaches December, that could be more risky than you think.
“Some noisy Brexiteers would like to shout that it is better for Brussels to prepare for the UK to leave, but in reality it is going to hit the UK much harder than the EU,” says Menon. “The EU can better swallow the financial cost of no deal, which means it can afford to choose the union over Britain, should it be asked to make that decision.”
When asked about Brexit after last week’s summit, several diplomats and EU officials pointed out to CNN a less notorious agreement reached on € 5 billion of contingency funds, in the event that a agreement. They largely implied that the sum was large enough to show that the EU was serious about not reaching an agreement, but small enough compared to the EU’s general budget to indicate where Brexit is in the block’s priorities.
With just over five months to go until the end of the transition period and even less time to negotiate, whether Johnson decides to play hardball or not could be irrelevant. “Although the EU would prefer a deal, it cannot be at any price,” says Wright. “They want an agreement that is fair and balanced, but that generally protects the integrity of their market. An agreement that goes against that could be more costly politically for the EU than a result without an agreement.”
And those hardline Brexiteers who have been advising Johnson to threaten to walk away might discover that it’s actually Brussels that is really quietly prepared to sleep through it all.
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