It is comforting to imagine that trained in the universe on both space- and earth-based telescopes, we could find asteroids of any dangerous size a mile away on our way, which would have plenty of time to color them white or explode them. .
But every asteroid we see coming in our direction, misses the number until they get further from there.
And for those of us who know well in advance, the possibility of an Earth collision is still difficult.
Asteroid 99942 Apophysis is one of the asteroids whose orbit can pass even a little closer to Earth for comfort.
Found in 2004, the 370-meter (1,210-foot) long rocky flower is on NASA’s Orange List – a list of asteroids we should keep an eye on – and yet scientists have ruled out any possibility of it hitting during its next near-flyby. In 2029, he’s not so sure he won’t slam in 2068 because he comes back this way.
The risk of knocking Ap Pofis to Earth in 2068 is somewhere in the region of 1 in 150,000, the size of a planet exploding bigger than an atomic bomb, so it is best to double check the numbers.
And a presentation in the American Astronomical Society’s division for the Planetary Science Virtual Conference, you probably won’t get a good night’s sleep.
Late last month, University of Hawaii astronomer David Thalen presented his and his colleague David Farnochia’s research after observing the planet for three nights in January and one night in March.
They were able to obtain incredibly accurate information about asteroids, and Yarkovsky was able to detect acceleration – meaning that the planet spreads more intensely on its hemisphere facing its sun than its shadow, causing asymmetric pressure, slightly altering its orbit.
When you work that acceleration into the asteroid’s model Dell, “it basically means that the 2068 effect state is still ongoing,” Tholen said in his presentation.
“We need to track these asteroids very carefully – obviously the approach to 2029 is complex.”
The approach of April 2029 will be very close (some of our communications satellites are very close) and it gives scientists a very important opportunity to study the apophysis in exceptionally high detail.
And less than nine years later, earlier this month the Lunar and Planetary Organization held a virtual workshop to try to roll the ball.
“Planetary knowledge is the first line of defense of the planets, and the 2029 Epophys Encounter is a one-per-thousand-year opportunity,” the Moon and Planetary Organization said.
“We have less than a decade to plan an Earth-based and potential in-situ mission that can deliver unprecedented detailed insights into the physical nature of the apophysis as a prototype example (poster child) of potentially dangerous asteroids.”
If we are lucky, we can get a Bennu-style mission to the Ap Pofis to explore the planet with the spacecraft, finding information that telescopes alone cannot hope to show us.
According to Gizmodo, Brent Barbie, an aerospace engineer at the University of Maryland, told the conference that the asteroid “presents the best opportunity to show and display a rapid response close to Earth orbit reconnaissance capability.”
While George Dworsky at Gizmodo outlines some of the possibilities, we still have to figure out what kind of scientific welcome mat we’re going to give to Ephesus.
Then whether it’s a new spacecraft, a quick detour for OSIRIS-Rex, or full-based observations, we’re going to learn a lot about our uncomfortably close neighbor – and hopefully if we’re crashing the Apophis in our place, we’ve confirmed once and for all. Will be able to. Then, we’ll be able to work out what to do next.
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