White evangelical voters have been staunch supporters of President Trump, casting aside doubts about his rude statements and messy personal life due to his promise to accumulate the judiciary with conservative judges sympathetic to his views on issues like religious freedom and abortion.
The president successfully nominated two Supreme Court justices, giving the body a Republican majority. But recent high court decisions, in particular a 6-3 decision on expanding gay and transgender rights that was written by Judge Neil Gorsuch, Trump’s first addition to the bank, have drawn widespread criticism of the evangelical voters and have caused some to question the commitments they made. by casting his last presidential vote.
“This has definitely raised doubts,” said the Rev. Rob Schenck, a prominent former evangelical activist. “It takes away something that gives you an advantage with that type of evangelical voter, a skeptical evangelical voter, a less certain one.”
The general election is more than four months away, and other important decisions on issues such as abortion and religious discrimination are expected in the coming days. But questions arise as to whether that disenchantment undermines support for the president among his staunch supporters.
However, some say the ruling on gay rights and a second decision that left intact California’s sanctuary law that granted protections to those in the country illegally will cause socially conservative voters to duplicate Trump.
“While there may be some disappointment in a political sense, in the end, Christians are people of principle,” said Costi Hinn, a conservative evangelical pastor and author in Arizona. “I am hearing that 100% is bringing the president back to office so that the job can be completed and moved on.”
Trump almost certainly needs a strong turnout of white conservative evangelical voters to win a second term in November. The group represents about a fifth of registered voters, and exit polls in 2016 found that 81% voted for Trump.
Trump spent months in the warning campaign: If Hillary Clinton were elected president, her Supreme Court appointments would tilt the country to the left for a generation.
“This is our last chance,” he told supporters in 2016 at a steamy summer rally in Phoenix. “And that includes the Supreme Court justices … Remember that.”
Trump successfully nominated Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh to the superior court, creating a 5-4 majority of the Republican-nominated judges.
Since then, while Trump has seen noticeable drops in support among many groups of voters, white evangelicals have largely supported the president.
Pew Research Center polls in February found that 81% of white evangelicals believe Trump is fighting for what he believes in, but 66% have expressed doubt or disapprove of his conduct.
Whatever their concerns, the poll “showed very clearly that white evangelicals overwhelmingly see Trump as someone who stands up for them,” said Greg Smith, Pew’s associate director of research.
That poll took place before the events that have rocked the nation since then: the coronavirus crisis, the large increases in unemployment caused by the economic shutdown to slow the spread of the virus, the police murder of George Floyd, the national protests over police brutality and the broader discussion of systemic institutional racism afterward.
Polls conducted in banks in March and May showed that white evangelical approval of the president’s handling of the coronavirus crisis had declined, although they still supported it at higher levels than any other religious group.
No religious or political expert has predicted that large numbers of white evangelical voters will abandon Trump. But if Democratic nominee Joe Biden can part with a small percentage of these voters who don’t like Trump’s handling of the crisis and Supreme Court decisions, it could make a difference in key states like Wisconsin and Michigan, John said. Ugly, history professor at Messiah College in Pennsylvania.
“That may be enough,” said Fea, who is an evangelical. “Trump needs to keep 81% and maybe more because he is going to lose non-religious independent voters.”
Another difference is that Biden is on the ballot, not Clinton. When the former vice president ran with Barack Obama, his campaign drew evangelical voters, and his ticket finally won 26% of the white evangelical vote in 2008 and 21% in 2012.
Trump seems to be aware of how critical it is to keep these voters in his column. After recent court decisions, the president promised to publish a short list of conservative justices that he would consider nominating for the Supreme Court if he wins a second term.
“These horrible and politically charged decisions coming out of the Supreme Court are shotgun blasts to the faces of people who pride themselves on calling themselves Republicans or Conservatives,” Trump tweeted last week. “We need more judges or we will lose our second place. Amendment and everything else. Vote Trump 2020!
He then warned supporters at a rally that Biden would nominate “extreme” and “radical” judges who would topple the American way of life.
The next president could make multiple nominations to the Supreme Court. Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Steven Breyer are 80 years old, and Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito are 70 years old.
Trump’s recent argument is identical to the one he made during the 2016 election that helped conservatives make their way.
“The motivating factor for me to move from Ted Cruz to Trump was the Supreme Court and he unfolded that list of possible Supreme Court nominees,” said Republican strategist Alice Stewart, who had doubts about Trump’s liberal past and his treatment. de Cruz during the 2016 elections.
Stewart, who worked on Cruz’s presidential campaigns and several other Republicans, described herself as “discouraged but not defeated” by recent court rulings. She was confident that the judiciary would eventually shift to the right due to Trump’s nominees, as well as the 200 federal judges he has seen confirmed since taking office.
“The promise to build a wall that Mexico will pay for has a useful life of zero,” he said, “but a candidate and confirmation from the Supreme Court lasts a lifetime.”
