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Located in the predominantly Muslim territory of Azerbaijan, but inhabited mainly by Armenian Christians, the region, which was part of the former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan, declared its independence from the Baku government in 1991 (the year of the collapse of the USSR).
In fact, Armenia and Azerbaijan have mutually denied sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh since 1988. The region then announced its separation from the former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan. As a result of the 1992-1994 armed conflict, Azerbaijan lost control of the region. Although a ceasefire agreement was reached in 1994, hostilities periodically resumed.
With the support of the Armenian army, the authorities de facto of the so-called Republic of Artah, not recognized by the international community, controls almost the entire territory of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, along with 7 Azerbaijani districts that surround the area. This means approximately 14% of the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan.
The fragility of the ceasefire agreement was also noted in April 2016, during The 4 day war – Considered until recently the most violent confrontation between the two sides, with more than 200 victims.
The current fighting (which started in July) did not begin in Nagorno-Karabakh, but on the border between the two countries, in the mountainous region of Touvuz. The exact circumstances are still unknown, and both sides blame each other for the outbreak of violence.
The last week of September was marked by fierce military clashes. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan enacted martial law and mobilized the army. With fighter jets, helicopters, combat drones, T-72 tanks, Baku has embarked on a large-scale “counteroffensive” to “suppress the combat activity of the Armenian armed forces.”
Arayik Harutyunyan, the leader of the separatist region, denounced the attack on the regional capital Stepanakert on Sunday. In response, Harutyunyan threatened to attack military installations in major cities in Azerbaijan. Baku authorities later announced that the military air base in their second largest city, Ganja, had been attacked. Fighting has intensified in recent days, with Armenia recognizing significant losses among separatists, such as the village of Madaguiz, and Azerbaijan can now control the road linking Armenia to Karabakh.
The official balance of the clashes exceeds 240 deaths and includes both military and civilians. A stable armistice (already requested by the international community) seems like a difficult goal to achieve.
Although Armenia has said that it is willing to enter into talks with the Minsk Group (the OSCE Trilateral Treaty between Russia, the United States and France) to restore a ceasefire, Baku imposes a clear condition: a concrete timetable for the military withdrawal of occupied territories of Azerbaijan, on the basis of the four resolutions already adopted by the UN Security Council (resolutions 822, 853, 874 and 884).
After all, both Yerevan and Baku legitimize their actions according to two principles of international law: Armenia maintains that the resolution of the conflict must be based on the people’s right to self-determination, and Azerbaijan militates for the territorial integrity of the state.
The geopolitical game: the involvement of Russia and Turkey
Although, at first glance, the South Caucasus conflict looks like just a territorial dispute between two neighboring states, it is part of a much more complex geopolitical chess game, in which Turkey and Russia primarily move decisively.
Turkey is Azerbaijan’s main regional ally, rich in oil and gas resources, for a variety of reasons: the two countries have deep historical, cultural and linguistic ties, common energy interests, and, of course, difficult relations with Armenia. In 2010, Turkey and Azerbaijan signed a strategic partnership agreement, in which they pledged to support each other in the event of military conflict.
Turkey says it is ready to support Azerbaijan both at the negotiating table and on the battlefield, as stated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Russia, already at odds with NATO over the conflicts in Libya and Syria, is closely watching the possibility of Turkey becoming even more militarily involved in the conflict.
To establish diplomatic relations and reopen the border with Armenia, the Ankara government has established a clear precondition: Yerevan will withdraw from Nagorno-Karabakh and the seven districts surrounding the region.
The blockade imposed by Turkey since 1993 poses serious problems for Armenia’s economy, isolating the country from major energy projects, such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway line. Without coal, natural gas or oil, Armenia depends on the old Metsamour nuclear power plant.
On the other hand, Russia’s role in mediating the conflict is uncertain. Along with the United States and France, Russia is part of the Minsk Group, created in 1994 to mediate the conflict in the South Caucasus.
Moscow supplies weapons to both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Between 2015 and 2019, 31% of Azerbaijan’s arms imports came from Russia. However, Moscow is considered a strategic ally of Armenia, being also its guarantor of security in the Organization of the Treaty of Collective Security. Armenia, a founding member of the organization coordinated by the Kremlin, cannot invoke anything similar to Article 5 of NATO (“An attack on one member is an attack on all”), because the provisions of the treaty do not cover the attack on the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh by no third country. .
The Minsk group has so far failed to identify a viable proposal, accepted by both parties, to end this conflict, which has been criticized by the Ankara government: “To date, the United States, Russia and France have not been able to solve this problem for about 30 years. And now everyone is giving advice“- said Erdogan, outraged by the calls of the international community, which has repeatedly asked Turkey not to interfere militarily in support of Azerbaijan.
On October 1, the leaders of the United States, France and Russia demanded, in a joint statement, the immediate cessation of hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh and the resumption of negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Other Major Players: Iran and Syrian Jihadists
As The 4 day war Since 2016, the third most influential power in the region, Iran, has offered to mediate the conflict between Azerbaijanis and Armenians. Traditionally, the Tehran government has good relations with Yerevan and multiple misunderstandings with Baku, which refer, in particular, to the energy resources of the Caspian Sea, but also to the intense military cooperation between Azerbaijan and Iran’s main rival. Israel. However, Iran has warned in recent days against any intrusion into its territory after several Iranian villages along the border were hit by mortar fire.
Another issue of concern is the involvement of Syrian jihadists in the current conflict. Armenia, Russia and France say Turkey has sent fighters from Syria to Azerbaijan. Although the allegations were rejected by Ankara and Baku, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that by Monday, October 5, some 300 Syrian rebels had left Syria to join the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
The European Union and NATO call for an end to violent military action, as well as the military participation of third countries. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan are working with the EU through the Eastern Partnership, which aims to strengthen political association Y economic integration to partner countries.
The Government of Bucharest is also committed to supporting the efforts of the Minsk Group and the EU to find a durable solution, exclusively by peaceful means and in accordance with the norms and principles of international law.
After all, why should we care about the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh?
Mainly because the current situation has shown us that there is the possibility of further escalation and interference from third countries in conflict, and its intensification could have serious consequences for regional stability.
Turkey and Russia can now move decisively. How far will Turkey go to support the Azeris? Will Moscow intervene militarily to defend its CSTO ally? Will the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict turn into a true hybrid war, with the participation of Syrian, Israeli and Iranian jihadists?
In a sea of uncertainty, one thing is clear to me: the European Union needs to strengthen its conflict management mechanisms in Nagorno-Karabakh. Until now, the Union’s action in this context has been described as limited, uncertain, due to the desire to achieve a balance between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
In her State of the Union address, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, noted that We will continue to be there for the Eastern Partnership Member States, to create new jobs and revive the economy.
Well, economic development is impossible in an uncertain and volatile security climate. The EU, with a unified approach, has the potential to participate more actively, together with the Minsk Group, in the resumption of the dialogue between the two parties.
Turkey’s attitude is unacceptable and the Union must pressure the Ankara government to stop any military interference in the region. It will not be an easy task, but resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict should become an essential part of the political dialogue with Armenia and Azerbaijan, even if the EU has so far focused on more tangible areas of cooperation.
However, the current situation has shown us that this strategy does not work. At least it doesn’t work if we really want the Union to become a strong player on the geopolitical chessboard. The European Union has a strategic responsibility to act in conflicts on its borders, not just to react passively.
