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The election of Joe Biden to the White House will change the tone of the transatlantic talks between the United States and Europe from hostility to mutual respect. After the trauma of the Trump period, European leaders see in Biden the opportunity not only to repair the transatlantic relationship, but also to redefine it in the coming decades, Politico writes in a material that analyzes the consequences for Europe of the US elections.
Will Europe seize this opportunity? In a world facing a pandemic, possible environmental catastrophe and the expansion of authoritarian regimes, it would be foolish not to take advantage, writes Politico.
Not that Biden is an easy partner. Regardless of his sympathies for Europe, Biden, like Barack Obama before him, will make it clear that Europeans must stop talking and start doing, if they want an equal partnership with the US. triumph for another four years from now.
Commerce
Donald Trump declared Europe the “enemy” of the United States in the field of commerce and, to be clear, imposed taxes on European steel, aluminum and wines. Even if the tone of the talks will be friendlier, the Biden administration is unlikely to revert to the old situation overnight.
One of Donald Trump’s legacies is that he has brought the issue of trade back to the fore in American politics. This means that although it is easier to conclude a trade deal with the Biden administration, it will not be an easy negotiation, especially when you look at the fact that the United States’ trade deficit with Europe has reached $ 170 billion.
Biden could open the door to the renewal of the transatlantic free trade agreement. The last attempt was Obama’s and it failed even before it materialized, due to vacillations on both sides of the Atlantic. However, many European leaders have every interest in trying again, especially in this period when economies are suffering from the pandemic.
Conclusion: Trade is an area that could intensify transatlantic cooperation, but it is also an area fraught with pitfalls.
environment
Biden’s victory came too late to prevent the United States from abandoning the Paris Agreement, but that doesn’t mean he can’t get the issue back on track after taking over the Oval Office. And it will. For Europe, this would be an important gesture of goodwill that shows that the United States is once again taking the issue of fighting climate change seriously. It’s an issue that Biden has made clear he is considering, noting during the campaign that his vision is that, in the long run, the United States will no longer depend on oil and gas.
Conclusion: Biden and Europe share the same vision of environmental policies. The United States will soon return to the Paris Agreement.
Defending
2% means 2%. NATO’s pledge to spend 2% of GDP on defense remains valid, even if Biden will not be as aggressive as Trump in reminding Europeans that several countries (especially Germany) have not reached this threshold.
Biden will also make it clear that the United States is changing its approach to China, so that Europe will have to take up the effort to put up resistance on the continent against hostility from Russia and China. While Biden has made it clear that Russia’s aggression must be combated, he sees China as a long-term threat.
Conclusion: France and Germany are expected to play an important role in this scheme, but it is unclear whether they are ready.
Middle East
No matter what people think of Donald Trump’s foreign policy, it is clear that he has made progress in the Middle East to ease tensions between Israel and its neighbors. This could further hamper Biden’s attempt to reconsider Trump’s decision to exit the Iran nuclear deal, especially if this threatens recent positive developments. Another obstacle is the behavior of Iran, which has resumed the uranium enrichment process and has become increasingly aggressive towards its neighbors.
While the EU is holding on to the Iran deal and waiting for the United States to return to the deal, this could be difficult to present in the United States, even among Democrats.
Conclusion: Biden is likely to try a rapprochement with Iran, but the United States is unlikely to return to the nuclear deal. At the very least, Europe will rid itself of some of the US sanctions threats if European individuals or companies do business with Iran.
China
Relations between the United States and China are tense and this is unlikely to change with Biden. In fact, the assessment that China poses a long-term threat to American interests in the world is one of the few things that Republicans and Democrats agree on.
Europe is not at this point. And it probably never will. Although the European Commission has joined Washington in declaring China a “systemic rival”, not all European capitals share this view. The biggest obstacle is Germany, the European country with the strongest trade ties to China.
Biden will urge Berlin and other dubious European capitals in Beijing to join the US-led coalition in a bid to stem China’s growing influence on the international stage. The big challenge: stop the installation of Huawei’s 5G technology in Europe, which, according to the United States, would create an information highway between the continent and the Chinese intelligence services.
Ultimately, the fundamental question is: will Europe stand with the US to try to control China’s influence or not?
Conclusion: Faced with concerns about China’s crackdown on Hong Kong and the use of concentration camps against the Muslim population, Biden’s US-led position will prevail.
Editing: Bogdan Pacurar
