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Currently, two NATO member countries are playing with fire in the Mediterranean Sea. The escalation of tensions between Greece and Turkey over recent economic disputes in the eastern Mediterranean has pushed relations between the two countries, which are so difficult, to the brink of a new “record low.” The variant of a military confrontation between the two NATO states, oddly enough, becomes, at least for the moment, a scenario that can no longer be completely ignored. Although it is still extremely unlikely to see a classic and open military conflict with naval fleets fully engaged with each other, Turkey could launch “attacks and challenges”, especially if the European Union is determined to impose economic sanctions on Ankara.
“The greater the chances of new European sanctions against Turkey, the greater the chances of attacks and provocations,” Claudiu Degedere, an expert in international security, NATO, EU, defense and strategic studies, told Digi24.ro.
Turkish President Recep Erdogan could use the entire arsenal of a “hybrid” war in the eastern Mediterranean region as the only way to mitigate possible sanctions in the media.
“Turkey will use a naval crisis, ship arrests, harassment in international waters, migrants sent to Greek islands, measures against ships under the European flag or seizures as soon as the European sanctions against Ankara are announced,” said military analyst Degéré.
How did you get here?
What is at stake this time, although old since the world (access to resources) is extremely delicate, multiplied by the current global context (pandemic), to which is added the plus of the global economic crisis that will not spare no one.
Recently, the Ankara government announced that it wants to drill for the rich natural gas resources of the eastern Mediterranean, specifically in the south and east of the Greek island of Kastelorizo.
Only the Greeks claim that the region belongs to the Exclusive Economic Zone of Greece, even if, geographically, the island is 2 kilometers off the coast of Turkey.
The Greeks also intensified this crisis. The Greek Parliament is expected to vote on the ratification of the agreement signed with Egypt for the demarcation of “Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ)”, which are incompatible with Turkey’s claims.
For its part, Turkey signed a similar treaty with Libya in November 2019 and considers EU governments to be “hostages” to the Greek approach to the dispute, as the EU supports Greece’s aspirations to demarcate the EEA.
Meanwhile, in Athens, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis announced to Greek lawmakers that Greece’s territorial waters would be expanded from 6 to 12 nautical miles along its western coasts and that Greece could expand its territorial waters and “in other maritime areas “, which provoked the ire of Ankara.
In fact, the Turkish chancellor warned that any action by Greece to expand its territorial waters along the eastern coasts to Turkey will be seen as a reason for war.
“What if …” Why is Erdogan willing to take more risks right now?
The outbreak of a “total” war between Greece and Turkey is a rather distant scenario. It is hard to believe that we will see large force deployments or large-scale military operations.
A few days ago, Ankara accused Athens of “militarizing” the island of Kastelorizo, where, according to the Turkish press, Greek soldiers were transferred. Erdogan spoke openly about the war and warned that Turkey was ready to “martyr”.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had threatened the Greeks with war on Sunday, warning that his country was ready to “martyr.”
But, even in the case of isolated conflicts or confrontations, Turkey withdraws, at least at this moment and strictly from the military point of view, from the position of favorite.
“Strictly militarily, Turkey has the first chance, because Erdogan is willing to invest more resources in the fight,” Claudiu Degedere said. “Greece seems more reserved and is coordinating more closely with France and probably other allies, to bring the case to a classic European debate. Erdogan is much more willing to take risks,” Degedere said.
And that’s because, according to the analyst, “Erdogan maintains his popularity through belligerent acts, populism, and the old conflict with Greece is very easy to manipulate.”
A dilemma arises: how much can the EU impose economic sanctions on Turkey if these sanctions were a pretext for Turkey’s “hybrid war” in the region (ship arrests, harassment in the Mediterranean, migrants sent to Greece and, implicitly, EU, etc.)?
“Sanctions can cover a wide range: economic, legal and political,” analyst Degedere said. “Erdogan can apply limited measures to generate local crises and could still apply sanctions to reciprocity.”
As in the case of Russia, the application of sanctions must be a gradual, long-term strategy that must be adopted by as many countries as possible. “It is easy for Turkey to take action against a small group of states, but if 28-30 states apply sanctions simultaneously, then the impact will be great for Ankara,” said the international security expert.
Russia is sitting and waiting to turn
Any conflict within NATO is beneficial to Russia and Vladimir Putin. A more “engaged” Turkey in the Mediterranean would leave Russia more room for maneuver in the Black Sea.
“Yes, Russia will have more room for maneuver, including using the Cypriot case to start new exploration and extraction activities in the exclusive economic zone near Crimea.”
Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that his country has discovered the largest natural gas deposits in its history, a field in the Black Sea that would contain 320 billion cubic meters of natural gas, adding that there is a high possibility. to discover other resources in the same area.
“Turkey’s approach to the Black Sea for prospecting is a good excuse for Russia to intensify its civil and military activities in our region,” Degedere said.
Activities that have already intensified. Recently, two Russian planes intercepted a US B 52 bomber over the Black Sea, according to the commander of the US Air Force in Europe.
On this occasion, the B 52 plane faced turbulence, after the Russian pilots passed the American plane less than 30 meters away. The maneuvers carried out by the Russian pilots were declared “unsafe and unprofessional”.
