US Study: US Can Only Rely On Romania To Counter Russia In The Black Sea

The study entitled “Russia, NATO and Black Sea Security” examines how three NATO allies in the Black Sea area, Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey, perceive and can react to hostile Russian activities. Among other things, the RAND Corporation study is based on the results of a personnel game with the scenario of a military crisis, which took place in June 2018. According to the document, “It is very likely that Romania is willing and able to contribute to a military initiative in the Black Sea ”.

And this is because although Turkey’s position is of fundamental importance “due to its naval capabilities and responsibility for the Black Sea Strait, according to the Montreux Convention”, Ankara is “reluctant to resist Russian aggression” due to to cooperation with Moscow. in Syria and “dependence on Russian gas imports”.

Sofia is heavily dependent on Moscow

The document also shows that NATO’s third ally in the Black Sea cannot stand firm enough against Moscow. Sofia “is vulnerable to the impact of Russian incentives and restrictions” because a nuisance from the Kremlin could affect, in particular, the Bulgarian energy sector.

The study shows that Romania is making a special effort to equip the Naval Forces with modern equipment. “Although Romania’s naval assets are modest in terms of quantity and capacity, plans to modernize existing platforms, purchase new frigates, and the possibility of purchasing three new submarines could increase Romania’s contributions to a western maritime presence in the Black Sea. “. shown in the document.

Bucharest initiatives

The report also highlights Bucharest’s initiatives to increase its allied presence in the area. Among other things, the request for an allied naval presence in the Black Sea is mentioned, an approach that was unsuccessful with its Bulgarian neighbors. “Romania’s proposal to establish a permanent naval task force in the Black Sea by Romania, Turkey and Bulgaria, with the participation of German, Italian and American allies, did not receive the support of Sofia,” the study said.

In conclusion, the RAND Corporation study shows that “it is necessary to expand existing defense and deterrence measures”, especially in the context in which “Russian military investments in the Black Sea theater of operations, carried out since 2014, have changed. fundamentally the security map of the region ”.