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Furthermore, studies have shown that former vice president Joe Bidenhis opponent dominates it in constant polls since the beginning of 2019, and that your average progress of 6% can be decisive in the announced race. The discussions among the campaign staff of the current President of the United States are the same concern, hence the need, in the next period, the most direct and serious attacks throwing yourself at the Democratic candidate in a real Negative publicity jihad.
Terrible polls undermine Trump’s reelection chances
The latest survey last week, conducted by Monmouth University, shows that across the country Vice President Joe Biden has 50% of the voting options and only 41% of the current president. If Justin Amash, a former former Republican in the House of Representatives who is likely to run, also appears in the poll. supported by the libertarian party, the score shows 47% for Biden, 40% for Trump and 5% for Amash.
By the way, April average opinion polls shows Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate, with 6% on Donald Trump in the popular vote In fact, most of them: the average of the surveys of each month, as of January 2019, shows the difference of 6%, which remained unchanged, despite the public events in which the two were involved, despite campaigns or general concerns. American statistics claim that we are talking today The most stable difference between a counter candidate and the incumbent president from 1944 to the present, which marks an absolute and indisputable feature of the surveys.
This thing in no way does it mean that former Vice President Biden has already defeated President Donald Trump. There have been other changes, and Donald Trump himself was successful last year. a return in the May-November period of 5%, winning the elections though lost the popular vote by 2%, that is, more than 3 million votes in favor of her opponent Hillary Clinton. But, as we know, the American system has particularities derived from the Constitution and from the initial settlement to the creation of the United States, respectively, a fixed proportional representation of the number of voters in each state (plus some peculiarities in 2 states) that gives the best place among the candidates.
So apart from some fairly clearly adjudicated states – those of the American coasts, more cosmopolitan, for the Democrats, those of the interior, in the depths of America and in the south, more republicans – continue being a series of states that regularly change color and what are the main objectives of the campaign. The call swing states are the decisive in the United States presidential election. AND Joe Biden Beats All of You Today!
In addition, it should be noted that the latest data on unemployment in the United States, The fall of the stock market and the economic situation show that 14.7% of the active workforce, more than 20 million Americans, were registered as unemployed since the outbreak of the current crisis, very bad news for any incumbent president facing the elections, and the return is not exactly advantageous, the estimate announces that they cannot be low unemployment rates below 8-9%, even with the total resumption of the American economy today.
EPA-EFE PHOTO
Strong and formed opinions limit the space to win the other candidate’s voters
Another bad news for Donald Trump comes from voting stability for the two opponents, and the stability of the opinions already formed about them. Media reports from the end of May to date, Grinnell College / Selzer and Company, Fox News and the University of Monmouth show that 27% of voters have very favorable perceptions of President Trump. and 42% very unfavorable opinions. It is the most difficult option and a record in surveys because not less than 69% of voters already have very clear and solid opinions about the current president., with a significant unfavorable deficit of 15%. It’s a record since 1980, when this question was first asked to identify candidates’ room for maneuver.
Not by chance Trump also had the previous record compared to the previous campaign in 2016, but with a completely different distribution between positive and negative opinions. Joe Biden has, in the same polls, important numbers but much lower than Trump. Only with him 46% of voters have strong opinions, including 18% very favorable and 28% very unfavorable.
These data are generally favorable for Biden, with 6% average and 9% in the last poll before Trump – they are able to define the type of campaign that must be followed to give victory to the two candidates. Yes for Joe Biden, a boring, almost invisible campaign, without great desires and, therefore, without great opportunities to make mistakes, brought things here, at Donald Trump, any kind of campaign keeps him on roughly the same perimeter, the world has the opinion formed, which is strongly negative. Instead, the real goal of the president and his campaign obviously becomes Joe Biden.
Therefore, the figures also show that Trump will get 90% of the votes in favor for him and Biden 90% of the very unfavorable for Trump. Donald Trump becomes the benchmark, but Joe Biden is the target for possibly turning things around. In 2016, the situation showed that the level of votes was 80% in both directions when Hillary Clinton was the opponent.
Combined, constant 6% advance and very favorable / very unfavorable ratio, but also Donald Turmp’s ability to recover, demonstrated in the presidential battle for his first term, in 2016, by 5%announces a statistical possibility in favor of the current presidentIf he remakes the route from 4 years ago, he recovers 5% of the 6% average of Biden’s advance and wins the US elections even if he loses the popular vote by 1%. But that can only happen in the case of the Trump miracle.
Americans don’t trust polls, though they were right in 2018 and Democrats won House elections
Yes Supporters of the President again trust Trump’s Miracle, things are not so favorable in this direction. Yes Reuters Ipsos survey last week showed that the overall average, 45% to 39% for Bidenthus an average margin of 6%, with the former vice president ahead by a higher margin than Hillary Clinton at the start of the 2016 election period, however confidence in the Democratic candidate’s victory is low.
So, an average of 55% of voters believe Trump will win this year’s election against Biden, as was consistently the case in February, in the Fox News poll, and in September 2019, in the Marist College poll. It is unprecedented, and the history of the polls shows that voters are always right and accurately indicates who will win the US election. Only that this did not apply to Trump in 2016, when everyone named Hillary Clinton as the first woman president and she lost.
But nor in 2018, in the intermediate electionsPolls show that while the Democrats’ victory for the House of Representatives was clear, voters indicated that Republicans and Trump will win, 50% to 44% of opinion. However, at that time, Democrats were more than 11 percent in favor of Republicans. in the same polls In the general election, Voters haven’t been wrong since Gallup polled in 1946. And yet, Republicans lost, and Democrats won a majority in the House of Representatives, and Nancy Pelosi took over the House, much to President Trump’s chagrin.
Joe Biden PHOTO EPA-EFE
Trump’s miracle and jihad against Biden
so In 2018, Trump’s miracle did not workBut Trump was not on the ballot then. For American voters it could be a clear indication of restore confidence in the polls and the options themselves. However, this has not yet happened. the mirage of Trump’s miracle endures in public opinion and in virtual space, especially. Impact can be important to eventual presence in the vote of those with less educated opinions for Biden and who don’t have a negative opinion about Donald Trump.
What if the prospect of new voters, which could make up for Biden’s disappointed or unconvinced stay at home, this time the chance is slim. Trump’s miracle and Cambridge Analytica stocks worked 4 years ago but now it’s unlikely like all the machinery of the Trump campaign have where to bring new voterslet alone get Democratic voters to stay at home. Democrats have learned their lesson, and their voters, and the chances that the Biden team will use all resources to find voters are equal, Micro-targeting technology has served its purpose, but it is already a common good..
Everything that has been said shows that Donald Trump doesn’t have much room to move. And that your only option is a sustained attack, an avalanche of dirty campaign movements, many counterfeits important enough to compel Biden’s campaign to be constantly on the defensive and their constituents be stumped, undecided and stay home, not participate in elections. Not for nothing, Blaide Parscale, the head of Donald Trump’s campaign, has already announced that Donald Trump will launch a true “Death Star”, a reference to the famous Supreme Star Wars weapon, by destroy former vice president Joe Biden.
Then Biden will soon face an avalanche of negative publicity launched by Donald Trump and his campaign, based on the fact that his own voters have much more clearly established and much stronger opinions about themselves. On the other hand, any campaign of this type is exposed to control reactions fake news on all social networks, where Joe Biden may even have company directors as allies those who do not want to get involved or be accused of tolerating this information war, since it already exists artificial intelligence mechanism dealing with it.
But, a free victimization of Joe Biden she is just as unhappy, and maybe, on the contrary, attracts votes of support as important as those that will be removed from your panoply. me a game with maximum risk, but another is no longer available to Donald Trump, under the given conditions. And between waiting a miraculous growth of the economy and a decrease in unemploymentrespectively an increase in their support and attacks on Biden, the current president will have no reserve to play assuming this risk to determine once again a new Trump miracle in November for his second term.
