Trade report: A rating downgrade would shatter the exchange rate. Property developers don’t like Nicusor Dan being mayor. Kurzarbeit: The first steps to implement the mechanism – Finance & Banking



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A cut would shatter the exchange rate. Otherwise, the euro will not rise 4.9 lei until the end of the year ● Cristian Pirvulescu: Real estate developers don’t like Nicusor Dan being mayor general. It would be inconvenient ● Nicolae Dănilă: “30 years of challenges and reforms in the Romanian banking system” ● Can Romania now enter ERM2, the prelude to the euro? Definitely not! ● Hospitals: managed by local governments, but under the responsibility of the central administration ● What does Mrs. Maria, 89, think about raising the pension point by 40%? ● Aid plan for large companies, operational next week ● Kurzarbeit: The first steps for the application of the mechanism: documents to be prepared.

A downgrade would break the exchange rate. Otherwise, the euro will not rise 4.9 lei until the end of the year. Finance is preparing an external topic. The chief economists of the banks forecast a rate of 4.90 lei by the end of the year. This is so if we do not have a downgrade of the country’s rating, which is closely related to increases in pensions and allowances above the limits. The depreciation of the leu will continue, it was anticipated, although not on this scale, and ROBOR’s increase in overnight loans only slows down the depreciation of the national currency. The exchange rate depreciation by 0.3% this week led to an increase in the ROBOR exchange rate at all levels. The good news is that increasing interest rates reduces liquidity and depreciation can be more easily controlled. In the last 24 hours, the overnight interest rate has almost doubled, with the strong depreciation of the leu, from 1.22% to 2.05%. It is true that the overnight interest rate strictly depends on market liquidity, and this is among the most volatile interest rates on the market. Furthermore, in this period of depreciation of the leu and regional currencies, as Valentin Tătaru, an economist at ING Bank says, “it is likely that the volatility of interest rates covering short-term interest is mainly due to the beginning of a new period of minimum reserves required “. We do not estimate its growth well above the 2.00% level at which the central bank can provide overnight liquidity through the credit line. ” write Economica.net.

Cristian Pirvulescu: Real estate developers don’t like Nicusor Dan being mayor general. Would bother them. Romania ends the campaign for local elections to be held on Sunday, September 27. The pandemic has changed the face of elections. No demonstrations, no hysterical political turmoil that kept Romania in check. If the political configuration is going to change radically, as happened in the European Parliament, the political scientist Cristian Parvulescu is skeptical and this for the simple fact that the electoral system favors the PSD. In the last local elections, PSD won by 55%, which will make it stay in the big party, with the largest number of mayors, even if it loses 20% of them, and the PNL will probably take the political vote and position 1 The political scientist Cristian Pirvulescu also considers that the political system in Romania is difficult to change and this is because our country is a country in the process of democratization, and the political system is still a solid and unreformed structure. For Cristian Pirvulescu, only 30% of Romanians have a liberal and pro-Western mentality, a percentage that increases over time. “The transition from a totalitarian system to a democratic system implies a cultural change, and this requires about three generations, about 60 years. So Romania is in the middle of this process, it is in the process of democratization.” type ziare.com.

Nicolae Dănilă: “30 years of challenges and reforms in the Romanian banking system”. One Monday, at 8 am, I appeared in the sumptuous meeting room on the 15th floor of Bancorex, where representatives of the bank’s shareholders were waiting for me. He mentioned that at that time Bancorex no longer had a board of directors and executive management. Thus began a particularly important six-month period for Romania. Bancorex was on the verge of bankruptcy, without management, generating huge losses and costs, putting Romania and its economy in danger. International institutions have recommended and insisted on the liquidation of Bancorex, which is also agreed upon by part of the country’s political spectrum. One of the first actions that I initiated was a working meeting with the bank managers at levels two and three. My message was direct and decisive: “I did not come to Bancorex to liquidate the bank, but to stop the risky decline that generated costs, losses and long-term negative consequences for Romania.” He knew very well the solutions adopted by the US central bank and the US authorities in similar situations and also knew a truth that he had to bear in mind, namely the fact that liquidating a business, compared to other recovery solutions, generates the highest amount of costs and risks. big, writes the banker in Ziarul Finance.

Can Romania now enter ERM2, the prelude to the euro? Definitely not! One of the possible medium-term development plans for the Romanian economy could be the Euro Adoption Plan. Easy to say difficult to do. And, if we look at what the experts in the field are saying, the NBR analysts, it is clear that at this moment we CANNOT. But it is up to us to turn this NO to YES, provided that we put Dâmboviţa’s policy aside and give the professionals a free hand to deal with the Government. To begin with, we should take inspiration from Croatians and Bulgarians and see how and when we can enter the ERM2 antechamber. The ECB announced on 7 July that Bulgaria and Croatia (Leva and Kuna, respectively) have been admitted to the Exchange Rate Mechanism2 (ERM2), which is before the accession chamber of the euro area. MCS2 remains for at least two years and, in the case of Bulgaria, the “currency board” arrangement can be maintained during this stage until effective accession. Bulgaria applied to join MCS2 in 2018, and Croatia in 2019 is shown in the Monitor prepared by BNR analysts. type fineco24news.blogspot.com.

Hospitals: run by local governments, but under the responsibility of the central government. The Minister of Health, Nelu Tătaru, announced in recent months that he will initiate the modification of the legislation to assume at the central level certain powers related to the management of hospitals. Specifically, it seeks to appoint and replace administrators, even in the case of hospitals now subordinate to local governments. It is precisely competition that was at stake with the decentralization of the public health network, in 2010, and allowed the excessive politicization of the system. The project has little chance of implementation, strong resistance is expected from the mayors and presidents of the provincial councils. On the other hand, all the failures and errors in the hospitals are resolved by the central administration, in this case by the Ministry of Health, which cannot intervene in the management strongly politicized by local interests. write cursdeguvernare.ro

What does Mrs. María, 89, think about raising the pension point by 40%?. Yesterday, around noon, having to do a job in the city, I get off and stop at the exit of the block. There, like every day, Mrs. Maria, my neighbor, took a nap. I didn’t know how old I was until yesterday. Respectful greetings, he answers me with equal respect, we smile and standing next to the mailboxes, full of brochures full of hilarious electoral promises, we begin to talk. I ask him what he thinks about the 40% increase in pensions. She nods in bewilderment and responds, “Stories!” She continues: “They made fun of their country and now all prices have gone up. If it weren’t for my son to help me, I don’t know how I would manage, I have a pension of 1600 lei and I have to pay child support, medicines, bills. In the last 3 years prices have increased enormously and although we receive some lei in retirement, we cannot handle the money, write project-e.ro.

Aid scheme for large companies, operational next week. The Minister of Public Finance, Florin Cîţu, announced on Thursday at the beginning of the government meeting that the credit guarantee scheme for large companies will come into operation next week. “Today we finalized the Agreement with EximBank, then we went to the Interministerial Committee of Finance, Guarantees and Insurance of EximBank,” said the Minister of Finance. “Call CIFGA and make the decision once, because there is great expectation regarding this state aid scheme. We have submitted an application for SMEs, we need to offer this scheme also for large companies. So next week it will be operational” said Prime Minister Ludovic Orban. according to Free Europe.

Kurzarbeit: The first steps for the application of the mechanism: documents to be prepared. Until the question of requesting money from the State is raised, companies that are in a position to apply the GEO Kurzarbeit mechanism will not. 132/2020 you have to make certain issues internally, set your schedules for a whole month, and make decisions for affected employees (i.e. those whose work hours change). Some questions about these initial steps for Kurzarbeit, in the opinion of some specialists: According to GEO no. 132/2020, the employer must first consult with the union, the workers’ representatives or the workers themselves, as the case may be, about the adoption of the Kurzarbeit mechanism in the concrete situation. This step should not be omitted, as it is expressly provided for by the ordinance, as the labor law expert Corneliu Bențe has recently pointed out. First, the decision to apply this mechanism is practically made, at the level of the entire company or only in one unit or another, and only then is the modification personalized, through documents, from employee to employee, type avocatnet.ro.



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