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A Brexit without a trade agreement could be three times more expensive in the long term than the coronavirus pandemic for the British economy, a study by the research center “The United Kingdom in a changing Europe” warns on Tuesday.
The study warns that the impact of COVID-19 will probably moderate or go to the background, that of a “no deal” at the end of the transition period that ends at the end of January, Agerpres reports.
But in the short term, a Brexit without a trade deal is “bad news“for long-term and economic recovery, it will be”more important“than the health crisis.
The research center, which has worked with the London School of Economics, estimates that due to Brexit, growth will be weaker for a longer period of time than it would have been without leaving the EU.
Estimates at 5.7% the impact on gross domestic product (GDP) for fifteen years compared to the current level.
These projections are made even if it is still difficult to predict what the repercussions of the health crisis and its long-term effects will be, when a second wave appears in Europe, with the risk of further penalizing the economy.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has set an October 15 deadline for an agreement with Brussels on the post-Brexit relationship, otherwise he will opt for a “no-deal”.
He believes that the country will be able to prosper even in the event of a brutal divorce from the EU, especially by negotiating trade deals around the world.
The EU urges the UK to fully implement the agreement
The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, urged the British government to fully implement the agreement, already signed by London, which regulates Britain’s exit from the European Union.
“It is time for the British government to take responsibility”said Charles Michel, after a telephone conversation with Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin.
The British government recently introduced a bill in parliament that partially contradicts the agreement already signed, a move that violates international law, as Prime Minister Boris Johnson himself recognized.
The law proposed by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has the potential to weaken customs controls between the UK and Northern Ireland, to the detriment of already established protocols with the European Union. This could lead to the emergence of the so-called “hard” border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, in a region where there have been no border controls in recent decades.
The bill cleared a first hurdle last week, passing through the House of Commons.
