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The increase in the number of new COVID cases among children, with the resumption of face-to-face courses, is at the root of a third wave of the pandemic. The relaxation of restrictions, but also the installation of so-called pandemic fatigue, which translates into a tendency to renounce individual protection measures, are other factors that contribute to an increase in the number of new cases, already visible.
Public health specialists work with three options, and the darkest scenario shows that by March 20 we could reach almost 9,000 of new cases every day, from an average of 2,300 as we registered last week.
Pis the basis of the data collected since the resumption of the courses, the National Institute of Public Health has established three scenarios for the evolution of the epidemiological situation:
- 1. Steady 1% growth in day, which would result in an average of 3,300 daily cases at March 20
- 2. Constant growth of 2% in day, which would result in an average of 4,600 daily cases at March 20
- 3. Constant 4% growth in day, resulting in an average of 8,900 daily cases at March 20
IN SP GRADES but that the scenarios are not mathematical models of evolution, but working hypotheses.
„As of February 17, there is a sustained increase in the average number of confirmed cases during the last 7 consecutive days, the evolution towards scenario 2 “, show analysis IN SP.
IS– observed an increase in the number of cases among the age group 0-19 years.
„In the next period it is possible to observe an indirect impact, because cComplicated 97% of cases in the 0-19 age group are isolated at home. It is possible that these cases can transmit the infection to adults in the same household, and they can develop the disease depending on their age and comorbidities.Complicated requiring hospitalization “, according to analysis.
„The observation of this increase in the number of cases cannot be attributed to the spread of the virus variant in the UK. It was expected that the opening of schools would introduce a higher level of mobility and additional interaction within communities, which would affect the epidemiological situation. Added to these is the reopening in some areas of the activities of economic operators in the field of HoReCa, gambling and culture, as well as probably a relaxation at the individual level in terms of protection measures and interactions, due to “pandemic fatigue “warns INSP.
Editing: Monica Bonea
