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Here Armenian minorities, supported by the Armenian occupation army, in the internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan, suffer the biggest defeat after the war here between 1988-1994. Ankara and Moscow would be close to an agreement At that time on Sunday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced the fall of the Shusha / Shushi citadel city (Azerbaijani / Armenian) paving the way for the conquest of the local capital Stepanakert, 15 km away.
A bloody conflict, about to turn into a massacre
Entered the seventh week, the Nagorno-Karabakh war between Armenians and Azeris in the territory legally recognized as Azerbaijan but which includes an Armenian enclave in the region of the same name, has becomea real massacre. Azerbaijani troops on the offensive took control of the China corridor between official Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, a corridor that is hit by Azerbaijani artillery, blocking the supply of arms and ammunition from the enclave.
In this context, it was announced on Sunday by the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, the fall of the citadel city Shusha (Azerbaijani) / Shushi in Armenian. Former city inhabited by Azeris, it was conquered / abandoned during the war 30 years ago and controlled by Armenians at the end of next week. The announcement of the President of Azerbaijan was contradicted by the Armenian side, who recommended trust your army and he said he was fighting in the city building by building.
In fact, the Armenian side recognized bombardments and heavy fighting in the region in the last week. In addition, the clashes were identified by journalists in the satellite field, not 5 km but 1.5 km from the city, initially, because then to enter the heart of the city. Now, the Armenian authorities also recognize the situation and Armenians are increasingly convinced that they have lost the war.. And the number of dead and wounded increases by the day, as the parties accuse each other of bombing innocent civilians and war crimes.
The conquest of the strategic city of Shushi was announced by the Azerbaijani president as a great victory. Ilham Aliyev said it was a day in history the one in which the second city of the enclave was recovered from the occupants. Usual, the Azerbaijani army does not report its own losses, estimated by Vladimir Putin in 5,000 soldiers on each side. With the inauguration of Shusha, the Azeris can go directly to the capital Stepanakert.
PHOTO EPA-EFE
The peace agreement rehearsed by Moscow and Ankara
In size Stop the fire and a peace agreement, negotiations appear to be more difficult. Already three truce attempts – two Russians and a formal American – failed. The mutual accusations were obvious, with each party claiming that the other side has resumed fire and the Azeri advance on the ground is visible today. Something common in this conflict in which nobody recognizes anything and openness to dialogue is insignificant.
If before the conflict, the Armenian side could wait a formula of concessions from the liberation of the 7 Azerbaijani districts Around the mostly Armenian enclave, after the start of operations, things get more complicated. In constant advance and from position of strength and domination, the Azeris have no interest in stopping their advance until they conquer the entire region and move troops to the internationally recognized Armenian border.
Today, the surrender of the 7 districts is no longer enough. Azerbaijan has maximized its position and demands, and in essence its capabilities and military strength from the field. Win Shusha It is even more important imagologically, from this point of view, this gesture that mobilizes and gives increase in Azerbaijani troops and pour lead into the boots of the Armenians. Thus, in Baku the ceasefire begins with the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the enclave completely, without conditions and preconditions.
The truth is that, in the new version, Turkey occupies an important position in support of the interests of Azerbaijan. Also, the OSCE format and even 1 plus two Russia-Armenia-Azerbaijan, are no longer relevant, provided that Russia and Turkey dominate the format. De facto, peace in Nagorno-Karabakh is proving to be a russian-turkish business, and here with reservations for the agreement that Baku will give on the Russian-Turkish agreement.
PHOTO EPA-EFE
Battles for Reconciliation: Yerevan’s Total Surrender
It was Dmitry Trenin, the head of Carnegie Moscow, who announced about the end of the Russian-Turkish negotiations. In fact, it would be a series of elements among which Stop the fire and preconditions, withdrawal of Armenian forces, passage corridors for Armenians between their own territory and enclaves and formulas of peacekeeping troops in Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey also did not deny the commitment, and Foreign Minister Ceavusoglu’s last visit to Baku would have had exactly this fundamental theme, acceptable conditions in Baku for the ceasefire.
The situation is desperate for Armenia. First, because the agreement is more like a capitulation that with an armistice. So why does it predict from the start complete withdrawal of Armenian troops of the Azerbaijani territory. Finally, the other provisions on peacekeeping troops would be acceptable to Azeris only between the territories of the two combatants, not in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Specifically, things would be even worse. Azeris have a position of strength and it no longer accepts any Armenian presence in the region. There will be no compromise and no amnesty for those involved in the conflict, a difficult position for the Armenian side. Furthermore, much of the inhabitants have already taken refugeand Baku demands that, in addition return of internal Azerbaijani refugees, to introduce strict clauses on Armenians in the region that would remain strictly those who existed in the enclave 30 years ago and their descendantsIn no way elements that later came from Armenia and especially from Syria and moved here.
It is still a major problem with withdrawal corridors and contact between Armenians and Azeris. As far as the Azerbaijani side agrees ensure access to the China Corridor for Armenians With a view to mutual visits and transportation of goods and support to the remaining Armenian minority in Azerbaijan, he in turn calls a corridor through Armenia itself allow linking the Nakhchivan enclave with Azerbaijan. To date, the connection has been made through northern Iran. But Baku wants direct connection exactly on Armenian territory, another condition that blocks possible Armenian offensive clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh.
After all, it’s not very clear either the idea of peacekeepers. Azerbaijan does not want to allow Russians or even Turks to enter its territory, but agrees that this presence should take place on the officially recognized border line between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Yerevan’s fears about the prospect of genocide in Nagorno-Karabakh they are not covered by a variant of internal peacekeeping troops.
Azerbaijan does not want foreign troops on its territory his, nor people involved in the conflict organize subversive movements, protest or sabotage. That is why these efforts are null and void without Baku’s consent, pushing the deal as far as possible to create an even stronger bargaining position. Y the prospects are deeply disastrous for the Armenian side that becomes the loser of the current conflict.
