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On Sunday, September 27, 2020, local elections were held, which ended with spectacular results. In fact, the whole day was with riots in terms of percentages of candidates.
Argument, the public opinion research institute of the DCMedia Group trust, provided rigorous forecasts on the evolution of voting in the Capital, on election day, using the CATI method. Many of the results were closer to the final vote than those announced by the companies that used the exit polling method, with face-to-face interviews at the polls. They gave differences of up to 8-9 percentage points, twice the reality of the vote.
The Argument survey followed the evolution of the vote, until the polls closed, and provided its clients with data from several major cities. For the DCNews public, Argument provided the data obtained in Bucharest, respectively, the way in which the respondents voted for the General City Council and the sector councils.
Argument was the only institute that predicted Popescu-Piedone’s victory in sector 5, and had the smallest deviations in the other sectors.
The order was correct for all sectors, except sector 1, where the results of telephone surveys are distorted by the heterogeneous structure of the population, with high social polarization, while the questionnaires used for this type of research on the day of voting does not allow data collection. income and education.
The margin of error is plus minus 3 percent. The comparisons are made on the partial results provided by BEC, on Monday, September 28.
Here are some examples from the survey:
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