Putin’s nightmare: what if he didn’t order the poisoning of Navalny? | Iulian Chifu



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At The case of Navalnia, the fact that he was extracted alive from Russia and arrived at the clinic in Germany where he is recovering quickly, where he announced that he is not staying, that he is not escaping but that he will return to his country, recent European Parliament resolution adds pressure, but especially raises a question mark over a Putin’s real nightmare: What if the poisoning was done without your order?

Decentralization of the use of military instruments such as Novichiok in Putin’s Russia

European Parliament resolution on the situation in Russia: Alexei Navalny poisoning (2020/2777 (RSP)), adopted yesterday, adds new elements to return Russia to a state of widespread mistrust and suspicion. Russia that became Strategic partner, rival if not enemy, according to a part of the MEPs. With the need for the European Commission to find effective measures to achieve compliance with the rules of the game by Russia, preparing the connection with the democratic Russia of the future, as indicated in the resolution.

Usually anything operation of this invoice, rated by some MEPs as “Of Stalinist origin”, it takes Russia out of the ranks of civilized countries, with whom it can be argued rationally because it respects international law and its own commitments. TO Convention against Chemical Weapons, for protection of human rights commitments and acts of belonging to the Council of Europe, the OSCE or the UN, and even to own Constitution of the Russian Federation, Article 29, which mentions freedom of opinion and expression. Why, responsibility for the approval of said operation by the FSB / SVR or GRU In fact, it depends on President Vladimir Putin.

Nobody doubts it. And yet let us accept as a course of analysis that Vladimir Putin did not sign the order, she didn’t even know about him. If indeed Putin discovers that the action was taken without further ado or that, by a competition of circumstances or a exaggerated interpretation by some heads of services or departments, who did not want or did not bother to bother him, the operation was carried out without your explicit consent? If he was forced to cover up this fact, to react and deny the action as if this insubordination didn’t exist? How does Russia look where such an event is possible?

Corruption and insubordination. Playing civilians with Novichiok-like neurotoxic substances in Putin’s Russia

Let us accept, for the beauty of the debate, that it is not even a state institution. Here again, without giving credibility to the script, let’s accept one of the submission directions of multiple alternatives to mislead research and public perception by the leaders of the Russian information war, namely that the oligarchs of Novosibirsk – investigated by Navalny during his visit to Siberia – decided to delete and used his own resources to to procure the novice of the state institutions. What would a Russia be in which private civilians, whether they are oligarchs close to Putin and paying his obol for the supreme leader – acquired the neurotoxic substance from the secret services and they used it. How is a Russia like that, in which Does the state no longer control military chemical weapons?

Of course Both variants are hypothetical and difficult to accept.. We are used to knowing Putin’s Russia organized with the vertical of power, with strict responsibility and with harsh penalties when I break the rules of obedient obedience to President Putin. In the case of a order arrived at the lower Russian institutional level, the news is bad for everyone. When these weapons can be activated and used without full commitment to the responsibility of the Russian state leader, this form of decentralization of violence and special operations is disastrous for prospects for relations with Russia and any action of these interest groups of the Russian state administration and abroad, not only on a Russian citizen.

The case of a actions of the oligarchs it’s even worse. When a civilian can access such state resources – otherwise secret and illegal according to international norms and commitments to which Russia is a party – and when uses them with impunity in such a case, to eliminate someone undesirable who interferes in your business, the situation is even more dangerous for the whole world. This situation, once proven, would mean that no one is safe anymore all over the world and that’s it criminal groups, businessmen or private connoisseurs of secret Russian institutional meanders they can acquire, only with the help of financial resources, sophisticated military instruments that should be strictly under the control of the Russian state.

The need for exceptions and non-exceptions of Putin’s Russia

Of course, nobody is so naive believe that these variants have an acceptable degree of credibility. Russia remains a state with strict controls of their secrets and weapons and has not been degraded to a level where one can afford to play with such Neurotoxic chemical military resources like Novichiokul behind Putin. As well as the so-called to protect the information as well about these neurotoxic poisons, nor the who know how to manipulate them, cannot be so ignorant of personal consequences and costs and so unaware that succumb to corruption to provide access or use this substance without all the necessary commands. But this exercise shows us What does that mean a moment of chaos in Russia for the rest of the world, mainly Russia’s neighbors, or exceeding the critical level of corruption above acceptable limits and especially tolerance without harsh measures, without extreme intransigence and maximum penalties of this situation.

In fact, the lack of a extreme immediate reactions and in all dimensions to Putin’s trains in Russia and European responsibilityand that of the world’s democracies, and that of all democratic states, with or without Unanimous votes at the level of formal international institutions.. AND compliance with these sanctions extremes must be brought to the last consequence to be serious. You can’t send Putin to Russia disagreement and firm rejection of an action of this invoice only through formal declarations and resolutions, not by actions that have impact, are effective and are strictly applied to achieve the speedy return of Russia to the rules of the game and to the fulfillment of international commitments.

Actions can include a wide range of penalties. With blocking of financial, commercial and economic activities and any association and non-essential transaction with Russia, with the complete sanction and isolation on Russian territory of all those involved in this administration or in the many other actions with which it defied the world, it violated international law and its own commitments. In Crimea, the Donbas, the Sea of ​​Azov, the Kerchi Strait, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Syria, Libya and other parts of the world. Of aggressive occupation military operations until cheating for doping at the Olympics. In all the line and with all the resources. Including through blocking North Stream 2 and the sale of goods from that state. Only for Not to financially support, in any way, the adventures ordered by Putin..

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