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Following the failure of the weekend’s negotiations to form a center-right coalition, the parties that entered Parliament come to speak with President Klaus Iohannis. In the consultations in the Cotroceni Palace, the leaders of the PNL and USR PLUS await a signal from the president to unblock the negotiations. At the end of the consultations, which begin at 11 a.m., President Klaus Iohannis is expected to issue a press release.
After two days of negotiations, the leaders of PNL, USR PLUS and UDMR failed to pass the first point of the discussions: the division of the three positions at the top of the state. USR PLUS insists that the position of president of the Chamber of Deputies belongs to Dan Barna, while the PNL wants the position of head of chamber for Ludovic Orban.
Due to the failure of the negotiations, USR PLUS goes to Cotroceni with its own proposal for prime minister – Dacian Cioloș. Party sources assure that he is willing to resign his mandate as a member of the European Parliament in Brussels and take over as head of government: “He has packed his bags,” say the sources cited.
However, those of USR PLUS want to force the hand of the liberals to convince them that without giving up the leadership of the Chamber of Deputies there will be no governing coalition.
In talks Sunday, the Liberals argued that accountability was needed to form a government before the end of the year, but USR PLUS did not back down in dividing the three positions equally. “They cannot choose two out of three seats,” say sources involved in the negotiations.
However, the leaders of the three parties say there is “little chance” that by the time the new parliament is constituted on December 21, there will not be a center-right coalition made up of PNL, USR PLUS and UDMR.
However, it is not excluded that the PNL will force a minority government in Parliament, although, as the calculations show after the division of mandates, without the votes of USR PLUS, the investment of the Government seems an impossible mission.
At the same time, PSD claims that it would like to rule. The party goes to consultations with Alexandru Rafila, the prime minister’s proposal. In Parliament, PSD would need AUR votes and UDMR votes to win government approval, and Klaus Iohannis does not seem willing to entrust PSD’s mandate.
How is the division of seats in Parliament?
Since this year, the number of parliamentary seats has increased from 465 to 466 after 18 members of national minorities entered Parliament, instead of 17. Therefore, the majority needed to reverse a government is 234.
The division of mandates is as follows:
- PSD: 157 parliamentarians;
- NLP – 134 parliamentarians;
- USR Plus-80 for parliamentarian;
- AUR-47 of parliamentarian;
- UDMR – 30 parliamentarians;
- Minorities: 18 parliamentarians;
In the Chamber of Deputies, the required majority is 165. It is the number of votes that, for example, a candidate for the office of President of the Chamber of Deputies must gather, but also the number of votes required for the approval of organic laws.
Dividing the deputy mandates by parties:
- Deputies PSD-110;
- PNL – 93 deputies;
- Deputies USRPLUS-55;
- GOLD – 33 deputies;
- UDMR – 21 deputies;
- Minorities: 18 deputies;
The required majority in the Senate is 69 senators.
- Senators PSD-47
- Senators PNL-41
- USRPLUS Senators -25
- Senatori AUR-14
- UDMR – 9 senators
What options does Klaus Iohannis have, following the consultations in Cotroceni?
The first party invited to the consultations with President Klaus Iohannis is the Social Democratic Party, winner of the December 6 elections. PSD goes to Cotroceni with the proposal of Alexandru Rafila – prime minister and asks Iohannis to name him to try to form a minority government or national union.
PNL attends consultations with a proposal from Florin Cîțu, a variant already discussed by President Klaus Iohannis with Ludovic Orban. If Florin Cîțu is appointed prime minister at the end of the day, USR PLUS will claim the presidency of the Chamber of Deputies for Dan Barna.
USR PLUS will propose Dacian Cioloș and it will transmit to the president that the PNL cannot assume both positions, and that of prime minister and that of president of the Chamber of Deputies.
AUR representatives announced that they will not support any variant of government, but will go to Cotroceni to nominate Călin Georgescu as prime minister. Also, AUR leader George Simion had a discussion on Friday with the president of the PSD National Council, Vasile Dîncu.
The UDMR will support the formation of a governing coalition on an equitable basis among the center-right parties.
Read also Who is part of the delegations that go to consultations with Iohannis on Monday. Diana Șoșoacă also participates on behalf of AUR
First scenario: the president postpones the appointment of the prime minister
President Klaus Iohannis was able to find, after consultations with the parties, that there is still no coalition that can form a parliamentary majority and announces that he will appoint the prime minister after the second round of consultations, scheduled for a later date.
The president could announce the name of the future prime minister only after the constitution of the new Parliament (December 21) to give the PNL, USR PLUS and UDMR time to formally form a government coalition and finalize the negotiations.
Scenario 2: PNL-USR PLUS-UDMR Government with Florin Cîțu as Prime Minister
The most possible scenario is still one in which the three parties manage to form a government coalition with Florin Cîțu as prime minister. For this to happen, the negotiations must be unblocked and Ludovic Orban or Dan Barna must renounce the claim of the head of the Chamber of Deputies.
The president could announce that Florin Cîțu will be appointed prime minister after consultations on Monday. Within 10 days, he must go to Parliament for the investiture vote, during which negotiations continue between the PNL, USR PLUS and UDMR for positions in Parliament and the Government.
Also read Sources: What offer did Ludovic Orban make to Dan Barna during the negotiations? USR PLUS threatens to stop accepting Cîțu
Scenario 3: NLP forces a minority government
If talks between the three parties are not unblocked, the Liberals could try to form a minority government led by Florin Cîțu.
In this case, Ludovic Orban should negotiate the necessary votes in Parliament. In addition to the liberal votes, at least 100 votes would be needed. The president of the PNL could have about 30 AUR and PSD parliamentarians whom he could convince the government to vote, but it is not enough. The 30 votes of the UDMR would not ensure the necessary majority either.
If the Government of Cîțu does not vote in Parliament, the President reconvenes the parties for consultations and the procedure is resumed. Such a scenario could lead to a major political crisis later this year.
Scenario 4: the Cîțu government does not obtain a majority and Iohannis proposes Nicolae Ciucă as prime minister
If Florin Cîțu fails to obtain a parliamentary majority, the president could nominate Nicolae Ciucă as prime minister to lead a minority government.
The Government of Ciuca is invested by Parliament with the votes of the PSD, which invokes the need for Romania to have a Government in the midst of a health crisis. PSD can receive one of two leadership positions in Parliament, in exchange for support.
Scenario 5: PSD receives mandate and attempts to gather a majority for a national or minority union government
It is an unlikely scenario, considering that the president has repeatedly said that he will not appoint a PSD prime minister and that the social place of the Democrats is in the Opposition.
However, the PSD’s attempt to reverse a government, with little chance of success, would buy time for negotiations by the right-wing parties, but would again end in a political crisis that could last until next year, superimposed on the crisis. with an interim government.
According to the mandates distributed after the parliamentary elections, the PSD has 157 parliamentarians and the AUR 47. In total, the two parties would gather 204 votes in Parliament, with 30 votes less than necessary for the investment of a government.
All 30 votes could come from the UDMR, but the Hungarians are in negotiations with PNL and USR PLUS for the establishment of a center-right majority.
