Is the capital closing or not? Why INSP and GCS have different estimates of the Covid-19 incidence rate



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The data provided on Tuesday, October 13, on the incidence rate of Covid-19 cases in Bucharest are confusing, these are two different figures, so it is not clear whether Bucharest should be quarantined or not.

According to the law, at an incidence of more than 3 of the cases of diseases with Covid-19, in Bucharest a zonal quarantine can be imposed.

INSP announces an incidence rate of 3.11 per thousand inhabitants

The National Institute of Public Health published this Tuesday a weekly report on the situation of Covid-19 cases at the national level, for the period from October 5 to 11.

According to this report, Bucharest recorded a cumulative incidence of 3.1 in the last 14 days of the total number of cases of Covid-19 infections. This incidence rate of 3.11 per thousand inhabitants was calculated for the resident population (the population that actually lives in Bucharest) on January 1, 2020, respectively 1,832,883 inhabitants.

GCS announces an incidence rate of 2.69 per thousand inhabitants

Shortly after the publication of the INSP report, the Strategic Communication Group reported the balance of Covid-19 cases during the last 24 hours, and in this report it is mentioned that Bucharest has reached an incidence rate of 2.69 per thousand inhabitants . coefficient calculated for a population of 2,151,665 inhabitants.

The 2,151,665 inhabitants represent the population domiciled in documents, in Bucharest.

According to the website bucuresti.insse.ro, the population by domicile represents the number of people with Romanian citizenship and domicile in the Romanian territory, delimited according to administrative-territorial criteria. The domicile of the person is the domicile in which he declares that he has the main residence, noted in the identity card, as it is registered by the administrative organs of the state.

The cited source also mentions that the population data by residence as of January 1, 2020 are provisional and will be reviewed in February 2021.

The Strategic Communication Group is the entity in charge of supplying official figures related to the coronavirus epidemic in Romania.

What the prefect of the Capital says

The prefect of the Capital, Gheorghe Cojanu, declared this Tuesday that the incidence rate of Covid-19 cases in Bucharest is 2.69 per thousand inhabitants, calculated for a population of 2,151,665.

Gheorghe Cojanu claims that the National Institute of Public Health (INSP) wrongly reported the incidence rate on Tuesday, the actual figure in Bucharest is below 3.

“The National Institute of Statistics reported an erroneous figure. He rectified. Today’s rate is 2.69. The Minister told him that at an incidence rate of 3 we will take steps to move schools to the red stage.“Declared the prefect of the Capital.

When asked to clarify on the basis of which data the decision to introduce new restrictions in Bucharest will be made, the prefect of the Capital repeated the information according to which the incidence rate is that provided by the Strategic Communication Group.

All schools in Bucharest enter the red scenario with an incidence of more than 3 per thousand inhabitants

According to the joint order of the Minister of Education and Research and the Minister of Health no. 5.487 / 1494 / 01.09.2020, the epidemiological criterion from which the educational units / institutions establish one of the three operational scenarios is the cumulative incidence rate, respectively: the total of new cases in the last 14 days compared to 1,000 population.

In Bucharest, the number of schools closing is increasing day by day. Of the 607 state and private schools, 28 are on the red stage after several students or teachers tested positive and 11 schools closed due to lack of infrastructure.

At the Bucharest level, we also have 2,000 students in quarantine or isolation and 253 teachers in the same situation, but they continue to teach.

To date, on October 13, in Romania, 160,461 cases of people infected with the new coronavirus (COVID – 19) have been confirmed. 120,515 patients were declared cured.

Following nationwide testing, compared to the last report, 3,109 new cases of people infected with SARS – CoV – 2 (COVID – 19) were recorded, cases that had not previously had a positive test.

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