How Curs-Avangarde explains the differences between the exit polls and the final results in the City Hall of the capital and Sector 1



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“We consider that some deviations, which occur especially in the case of some sectors of Bucharest, are due to the high percentage of refusals to answer the questionnaires, of more than 25% of the total respondents. Those who refused were mainly from certain vulnerable groups, such as the population over 60 who showed a great reluctance to speak to interviewers, most likely due to fear of coronavirus disease. If these negatives are correlated with the smallest samples established for the sectors in Bucharest, with the smallest sample being that of sector 1, then the significant difference between 1st and 2nd place for the office of mayor can be explained, in part, among the survey results. and those published by BEC, a situation that is still being discussed according to official counts, ”explained the representatives of the two sociological research houses.

They also spoke of a possible “spiral of silence”, that is, of hiding the true option so as not to be judged according to it. “We do not rule out the operation of a certain spiral of silence that would put the PSD candidates at a disadvantage, knowing that this party was attacked with more force in the media, so that some of its voters do not show who they voted with, especially in the sector 1, with a more intellectualized electorate (50% with higher education) and older. This explains, at least in part, the underestimation of the chance of the mayor for the PSD mayoral candidate of sector 1 and the overestimation of the USR candidates -Plus, the young people answering the interviewers with a request ”, the representatives of the sociological research houses also specified.

The authors of the exit poll also state that “in almost all cases the polls correctly estimated the winner. The only deviation is given by the estimate of USR-Plus in the first place when winning the positions of local councilors in sectors 1 and 2 ”.

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