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The weather forecast for 2021 is based on key global climate factors, but does not include unpredictable events such as volcanic eruptions or extremely strong fires, which would cause temporary cooling, according to ANM.
“Due to the influence of La Niña in the tropical Pacific, the ocean water temperature is 1.0-2.0 ° C below average and under these conditions, according to the Met Office, the global average air temperature in 2021 will be slightly below that of previous years (as of 2015) La Niña is the opposite of El Niño and has a temporary cooling effect on the global average temperature ”, show the specialists of the National Meteorological Administration.
“The variability of the La Niña / El Niño cycle is the second most important factor in determining the Earth’s temperature, but at the same time the temperature is strongly influenced by the increase in the content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere”, said Dr. Nick Dunstone, a Met Office Science man.
“The forecast of the global mean air temperature for 2021 is an average value for the entire planet. Some locations heat up faster than others. For example, the Arctic is twice as hot as other regions, ”said Dr. Doug Smith, one of the Met Office’s climatology experts.
Due to global warming, the average temperature will be much higher than in other years
“The global mean temperature in 2021 is unlikely to be record high (thanks to the influence of La Niña), but due to global warming it will be much higher than in other years heavily influenced by La Niña like 2011 and 2000.” said Professor Adam Scaife, director of the long-range forecasting department at the Met Office.
The results of research conducted by the Met Office in late 2019 on the global mean air temperature in 2020 are consistent with the most recent observations for this year (0.99 ° C to 1.23 ° C, with a central estimate of 1.11 ° C). According to data collected in January-October 2020, the average global temperature is 1.17 ± 0.11 ° C above the levels of the pre-industrial period (ed. Before 1850).
