[ad_1]
After the last votes are counted and the Central Electoral Office announces the final results of the 2020 parliamentary elections, President Klaus Iohannis will convene consultations in the Cotroceni Palace with the parties that entered Parliament. Before the elections, the president seemed convinced that he had only one option as prime minister: Ludovic Orban; and some variants of government. After the elections, some questions arise: what are the chances of a solid majority around NLP and how secure is the nomination of Ludovic Orban, after the failure of NLP in parliament.
The winner of the parliamentary elections is the Social Democratic Party, which gets almost 30% of the votes. In addition, after the redistribution, the party that wins the elections is the most advantageous, so the percentage of seats that the PSD will return in Parliament will be around 35-38%. The PSD’s advantage in the elections does not necessarily mean that PSD will be the party that will give the government.
What the Constitution says
According to article 103 of the Constitution “The President of Romania appoints a candidate for the post of Prime Minister, after consulting the party that has an absolute majority in Parliament or, if there is no such majority, the parties represented in Parliament.”
Thus, being in the situation in which neither party obtained a 50% + 1 majority in Parliament, President Klaus Iohannis can propose any variant of Prime Minister, after consultation with the parliamentary parties.
What’s next after the consultations
After consultations in the Cotroceni Palace, the president proposes a prime minister, who has 10 days from the appointment to request the vote of the Parliament on the program and the entire list of the Government.
Article 103, numeral 3 of the National Constitution establishes that “the Government’s program and list will be debated by the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, in joint session. Parliament trusts the Government with the vote of the majority of deputies and senators ”.
Therefore, the president must ensure that the person appointed to form the government has sufficient parliamentary support to take the oath. This requires the vote of 233 parliamentarians.
Government Scenarios
Before the parliamentary elections, President Klaus Iohannis repeatedly stated that the first choice for prime minister is Ludovic Orban. However, the president’s statements were made in a context in which opinion polls indicated a victory for the National Liberal Party.
In the context of the confidence given by the polls consulted by the liberals, Ludovic Orban declared that “the prime minister is given by the party that wins the elections,” a statement that fell perfectly on the leader of the PSD, Marcel Ciolacu.
Although Marcel Ciolacu knows that the president is not obliged to nominate a PSD prime minister, he raised precisely on the basis of Ludovic Orban’s statement.
With a result well below expectations, Orban now sees his position threatened, both at the top of the game and in the race for a new term at Victoria Palace.
Scenario 1: Government PNL-USR PLUS-UDMR (PMP?) – Prime Minister Ludovic Orban
The most plausible form of government is that of the right-wing parties. Dacian Ciolos declared this Monday, after the elections, that USR PLUS is ready to enter a government together with the PNL, and the UDMR has become “indispensable.” “You can create a decent majority,” said Dan Barna.
However, a question mark remains regarding the PMP. If it manages to cross the threshold of 5%, the PMP is a variant that both the liberals and the president are considering to form a government. Eugen Tomac’s party is part of the same European political group and has lately been a partner of the Liberals.
However, if the PMP enters Parliament, it could oppose the co-option of USR PLUS in the Government.
Mathematically, after redistribution, PNL – USR PLUS – UDMR and national minorities could have a majority at the limit. If the PMP enters the Parliament, the Government could have a greater support, towards 60%.
Scenario 2: PNL-USR PLUS government – UDMR – without Prime Minister Orban
Another variant of government would be one without Ludovic Orban, after the failure of the parliamentarian. President Klaus Iohannis could have several variants of NLP Prime Minister, among which are Nicolae Ciucă, Florin Cîțu or Ilie Bolojan. However, PNL sources assure that, although Bolojan would have the support of the party, it is not approved by President Iohannis.
Although USR PLUS announced in the campaign that the proposed prime minister of the party is Dacian Cioloș, according to political sources, Klaus Iohannis does not take Cioloș into account.
Scenario 3: PSD-AUR-Minority Government (UDMR?)
Another form of government could be that built around the Social Democratic Party. However, this variant is highly unlikely for two reasons. First: Klaus Iohannis will refuse to nominate a PSD prime minister, either Alexandru Rafila. The second reason has to do with the possibilities of forming a parliamentary majority to give the Government.
The leader of the PSD, Marcel Ciolacu, did not rule out a collaboration with AUR, a party that is close to 9%, but even if the PSD reached 38% after the redistribution, it would still need the votes of the national minorities and the UDMR.
The president of the UDMR, Kelemen Hunor, has already announced that he prefers a center-right majority.
Likewise, the leader of AUR, George Simion, announced on the night of the elections that “we will not enter, in any of the variants, any government coalition.”
Under these conditions, the PSD would really need the “Martians” of whom the party’s general secretary spoke, in order to govern.
However, in consultations at the Cotroceni Palace, PSD will go with a proposal for prime minister. Ciolacu announced that he is considering four names, and the candidate for the post of prime minister will be outlined at a party meeting, probably on Wednesday. The four names are Alexandru Rafila, Sorin Grindeanu, Mihai Tudose and Vasile Dîncu.
