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DW: How much longer do we have to live in the world with this coronavirus pandemic?
Christian Drosten: It is very difficult to make global forecasts. We have many different and difficult situations in Europe. Winter will not be easy. Next year we will have vaccines. I think it will take until the end of next year for these vaccines to reach certain sectors of the population.
We don’t get rid of the masks that fast. And once we start vaccinating, most of the population will have to wear masks. In countries like Germany, with a small number of cases of infection, there will be no mass immunization. It probably doesn’t exist in other European countries either.
It is difficult to say in other regions. In Africa, for example, the course of the disease appears to be less severe. It may be related to the youth demographic structure, but at the moment we are only looking at the situation in the urban environment, where many young people live anyway. We do not know how the virus will evolve when it spreads to rural areas. We don’t even know what state the epidemic has there. There are reports that the number of new infections is decreasing. But we don’t know if we can generalize. In cities, the epidemic appears to be weakening in intensity, but it is just as likely to return strongly.
What regions are you particularly concerned about?
India is the one that worries me the most now. The country has a high population density. The virus is spreading there; I wouldn’t say it’s completely out of control, but it’s close. Of course, there are certain territories in South America. I mentioned Africa before. The African continent is currently a little mystery. And winter is coming to the northern hemisphere and there are regions, including Europe, where there is little control over the virus. Some countries are already facing a large number of cases before the onset of winter and people’s trust in the medical system is low. There are countries, and in Europe, that I think should soon take tougher measures.
Other countries see Germany as a kind of pandemic control model. What are the Germans doing right?
It is definitely a combination of factors. One reason would be the direct and decisive way in which the first wave of the pandemic was acted upon, through the measures decided by the Chancellor. Meanwhile, the solidarity of the federal states has waned. But of course it was decisive that Germany acted very soon. Not in relation to the date of the calendar, but to the moment in which the restrictions of social contact were instituted, the so-called blockade. And this compared to the actual evolution of the epidemic. We have always known the stage of the epidemic in our country based on laboratory tests. And these tests and their wide availability distinguish Germany from other countries.
Another explanation would be that, in our country, the epidemic started a little later. The first imported cases of coronavirus did not cause an epidemic already in January, but only at the end of February. The first imported cases were kept under control and the spread of the disease was initially stopped. This is probably why our approach has been so effective. After the closure, let’s say since mid-May, there have been few new cases in Germany, and things remain the same. So far, although we once again notice a slight increase in the number of infections.
Now is the fall and winter. What do you think will happen in Germany?
I think there are few differences between European countries in terms of the demographic structure of the population and other parameters. So we have to look at the others: France, UK, Spain. What we see there, we will have in Germany, if we do not take immediate measures, measures that are bearable for the economy, but at the same time must lead to the fulfillment of the objective (keeping the epidemic under control, ed.). It is a difficult task to find the right moment to change the current measures, which are now correct and in which there is nothing to criticize.
Like you said, we will still wear masks for a long time. When will we be allowed to embrace again?
This will be a very regional problem. I would not be surprised if, next year, the population of some parts of the world is protected. But this means that, in those parts of the world, the population has gone through a not very serious epidemic, especially due to the young demographic structure. That could be the case in Africa. At least I hope that the young profile of the African population turns out to be a protective factor. In other parts of the world, where the strategy is to limit a massive spread of the virus, waiting for a vaccine, I think we will have to wear protective masks by the end of 2021. It is impossible to make accurate predictions, but next year It will be a year in which we use More expensive.
Prof. Dr. Christian Drosten is the director of the Institute for Virology at Charité Berlin. He was one of the first researchers to discover the SARS virus, also a coronavirus, in 2003. In early 2020, he developed the world’s first test to diagnose SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Interviu publicat de Deutsche Welle
