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The results of the EXIT-POLL conducted by CURS-AVANGARDE on voting day for the parliamentary elections of December 6, 2020 were confirmed by the BEC count.
The data to which we refer are the final estimates published by CURS-AVANGARDE on Antena 3 and other television and radio stations for 9:00 p.m. We present these data in comparison with the results of the BEC regarding the votes obtained by the parties in the elections to the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate in the country and in total (including the votes of the diaspora).
We mention that the sample included only the polling stations in Romania.
Taking into account the main criteria for evaluating the EXIT SURVEYS for such elections, the following results should be mentioned.
1. Exit-Poll-ul a correctly identified or estimated the winner (the main indicator to evaluate the performance of a survey). Thus, the electoral victory of the PSD was estimated, with a deviation of 0.1% for the CD and 0.2% for the Senate. The precision with which the winner is estimated, compared to the BEC results, practically confirmed the professional performance of this Consortium (later also in Exit-Poll for the local elections of September 27 the mayors of Constanța and Craiova, practically with the scores obtained BULB.
2. Hierarchy estimation or the order of the parts with a single deviation, respectively the location of the new AUR formation with a lower place than that granted by the BEC.
3. Included in the margin of error was easily surpassed in the case of PNL and significantly in the case of AUR, where the operation of the “spiral of silence” towards a new party was confirmed, with a speech, let’s say, more different and picturesque, which generated controversy in public space. These lower or higher estimates are generally accepted in surveys where the results are presented with a 95% confidence level.
Four. Mean deviations Estimates regarding the actual results are below 1.2%, this being another criterion that confirms the professionalism of the two survey companies.
For other methodological clarifications, see the CURS and AVANGARDE sites./
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