Cristian Pîrvulescu, three scenarios for Romania after the elections. Who will come to the government and who will oppose Politics, Noticias Libertad

Most likely, a coalition between the PNL and the USR-PLUS will form after Sunday’s elections, believes political scientist Cristian Pîrvulescu, interviewed by Libertatea. It is the coalition that President Iohannis is looking for, although the electoral campaign was full of attacks between the two sides. On the one hand, the leaders of USR-PLUS accused the politicization of NLP in the institutions, while the liberals slapped them.

Pîrvulescu says that regardless of score, USR won’t give up easily and will be a difficult governing partner for NLP.

“USR will negotiate very hard. I do not expect Barna and Ciolos to surrender because the PNL needs their votes to form a government. In Italy, the small parties even gave the prime minister because without them the government coalition could not be formed,” says Cristian Pîrvulescu.

A PNL-PMP-UDMR coalition

“This is an anti-reform scenario. The two parties, PMP and UDMR, can give the majority, but the Government cannot promote the necessary reforms, such as administrative reform,” says Pîrvulescu.

“Neither the PMP nor the UDMR want reforms. A state works through its officials, through bureaucrats. But they need to be shown the direction, not ideas presented to them. Or, politically, they give these functions in the administration ”, He points out.

Furthermore, such a formula could meet the opposition of the first vice president of the PNL, Rareș Bogdan, who constantly attacked the UDMR.

The political scientist assures that, depending on the vote, another scenario could appear: the PNL-USR-PMP government, which he says will be an impossible situation to handle.

PSD – Pro Romania, UDMR plus national minorities

This is the most unlikely scenario for the government, but it cannot be ruled out from the start due to the recent rise of PSD in polls and the fact that a small turnout is expected.

However, PSD will also need Pro Romania, but also UDMR and national minorities in order to pass laws.

The president of the PSD, Marcel Ciolacu, has indicated in recent days the names of several dignitaries for ministerial positions in a possible government: Alexandru Rafila (Health), Cristian Socol (Finance), Mihai Tudose (Economy), Leonard Azamfirei ( Education) and Maya Teodoroiu (Justice).

“This would be the scene of the catastrophe,” says Pîrvulescu. “In vain they brought new people to the lists, because the mayors and the barons are the same, and they want the same thing, that is, to stop the reforms,” ​​according to the political scientist.

He gave as an example the administrative reform attempt of Liviu Dragnea in 2013, which failed precisely because of the opposition of the local barons, because the leaders of the territory have lost positions and influence.

AUR could rob the PSD electorate

Formations such as the Party of Liberal Social Humanist Power (PPUSL), the Romanian Ecological Party (PER), Demos or the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) will remain outside Parliament.

However, the latter could come as a surprise if it increases by a small percentage.

Pârvulescu says that this party, made up of anti-vaccines and with anti-EU and anti-system doctrine, can capture between 1 and 2 percent. These will be taken from the PSD electorate, which came earlier by attracting former peremistas.

In the municipal elections, AUR obtained 1% of the votes of the councils.

The diaspora vote could offset lower turnout in the country

In the absence of mobilization of local elections, where each candidate for mayor or county council had every interest in getting people to the polls, turnout in parliament could be lower than in the fall elections. Especially since the number of COVID-19 cases has skyrocketed in the meantime, and some people may be afraid to go to the polls. Disinterest could be added to these.

“The most plausible is a percentage of 38%. I hope it is a low presence, but the diaspora will partially compensate. Less than 100,000 will vote abroad, probably 50,000, but in the context of low participation this matters.” Pîrvulescu declared in favor of Libertatea.

He says that neither the PSD nor the PNL have the interest of a large participation, based on the ability to mobilize their mayors. The only stakeholder in a large presence would be RSU, but the internet campaign has a weak impact on mobilization.

“With a presence of 40%, PNL and USR have an advantage. It is said that the elderly will not come to the polls, but I am afraid they will not, there is a risk that young people prefer not to appear, warns the political scientist Cristian Pîrvulescu .

Why is it important for the UDMR to enter Parliament?

However, the political scientist says that it is important that the UDMR is part of the new Parliament, to avoid ethnic tensions and propaganda in Budapest.

The concept of “consociative democracy” is questioned, when power is divided and measures are negotiated so that everyone agrees with them.

If it does not cross the 5% threshold, the UDMR will continue to reach Parliament, but will have fewer MPs, which means that its importance is decreasing.

The UDMR previously supported the PSD in Parliament, during the period when Liviu Dragnea led the party.