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The economy grew below expectations in the third quarter. It is a rhythm less than half that of cmethe euro area. Recovery is much slower. And, most importantly, uneven.
I lost something along the way in the third trimester. Economic growth in July-September was only 5.6% compared to the previous three months. Year after year, it is a contraction of 6%, and at nine months there is less than 5.1%.
We have a comeback, but it falls far short of expectations. The Bloomberg survey had a quarterly estimate of 7.2% and less than 4.4% year-on-year.
There is also a decoupling from what is happening in Europe. The euro area grew much faster, 12.6% quarter-on-quarter. In the annual report, where we have that minus 6%, in the entire community block only Spain was worse.
Why Banking Economists Are Reluctant To Change Their Forecasts
There were indications that the return would be slower than expected. But the pace seems even slower. However, banking economists are reluctant to change their forecasts for 2020. They have changed those for next year, with lower growth expectations, but they are maintaining them for this year for now. The uncertainty is great.
The first, because it is not at all clear what the fourth quarter will be like, the one we are going through. Second, because the data already announced is subject to review, possibly a little more, after more details appear. Even Statistics notes that it has difficulty collecting data and can conduct reviews.
Less fixes
Even in Friday’s post it came with some corrections from previous quarters. And they were the unpleasant ones, down. The contraction in the second quarter, according to new data, was greater, minus 12.2% and, surprisingly, in the first trimester, the revision eliminated growth.
GDP at the beginning of the year was at stagnation compared to the fourth quarter, from where, previously, there was an increase of 0.3%.
Basically, the economy, according to this data, was within a second decimal of the declared recession. And some of the weaker performance in the third quarter also comes from these changes to the reporting base.
Illegal return
The evolution by sectors will be published on December 8, then it is possible to make revisions, then it will be clear where it bites, but the poor performance of the second quarter may have several factors. Probably a great influence came from farming broken by drought. Then a wide palette of services they have not yet fully recovered. And in addition to gross value added, there is expected to be a brake thereafter tax net in the product.
In a statement from Thursday’s monetary policy meeting, the central bank drew attention to the uneven performance across sectors. Industrial production increased quarter by quarter by more than 26%, Commerce by 13.5%, building, who, however, did not break from their knees in quarantine increased marginally, by 1.9%. But overall, there is a real increase of only 5.6%. Other sectors are lagging behind.
Since the beginning of this disturbance, the alphabet has been revised to illustrate the evolution of the economy: V, L, U, W. More recently, the Greek alphabet is also used for characterizations of fineness, μ (“miu”), of example.
For the letter expression of the way things move as it happens in our country, the letter … K is used. The final part of the letter shows the divergent evolution of the sectors.
