ANALYSIS Who really won the local elections

1. NLP won the local elections by political vote – by 34%. First of all, it is a victory for Prime Minister Ludovic Orban, which led to the party’s best score in 30 years. Although the figure is not spectacular, the result obtained by the NLP comes after a government in full pandemic, which accelerated the erosion, all in the context of a hostile majority in Parliament. Therefore, the president of the PNL is the favorite for another term as prime minister, as long as the party repeats the result in the parliamentary elections in December. Any lower score will be a vulnerability for Orban. Any higher score will force Klaus Iohannis to re-appoint the NLP leader as Prime Minister. For now, Ludovic Orban has no competition in the party, but any misstep will open the internal struggle for power, especially since the stakes are high: the NLP will be in power for the next four years. If we look at the political map, the Liberals won 17 councils. But what do we compare it to? In 2016, PNL took only 8 counties, so it looks like a clear victory. But the estimates made by the Liberals in the campaign showed that the PNL would win between 17 and 23 Provincial Councils. Therefore, only the lower limit of political claims was reached. Note the symbolic victory in Vrancea, where the Liberals overthrew Marian Oprişan after a quarter century of rule. But in Focsani, Development Minister Ion Stefan failed to defeat acting mayor Cristi Misailă, one of Oprişan’s lieutenants.

In terms of county residences, in 2016, PNL marked 14 large city halls. In 2020, the Liberals added just one more to the list, plus the victory of Nicusor Dan from Bucharest, where the NLP has the merit of having given up the pride of having its own candidate. The Liberals lost three important strongholds: Timisoara, Alba Iulia, and Brasov. Nicolae Robu, the elected mayor during the USL era, had a 10 percent lead at the start of the campaign, but selfish behavior wiped out even NLP members, who put the stamp on Dominic Frtiz. In Alba Iulia, Prime Minister Ludovic Orban lost to Mircea Hava, the former mayor of the city, who opted for a mediocre successor, and in Brasov the wind of change swept George Scripcaru after 16 years in office. But the three losers had percentages close to the game’s score, and NLP prevailed in the county, a sign that the Liberals are still strong even where they lost. The Achilles heel is still the Capital, where PNL only came in third place, after PSD and USR PLUS. Nationally, the NLP won 1,237 mayors, according to the parallel count, 150 more than four years ago. It is exactly the number of elected officials recruited from PSD on the brink of elections.

2. PSD it came in second, but mathematically it is still the largest party in the country in terms of the number of local elected officials. The Social Democrats lost nearly 300 mayors compared to 2016, but a total of 1,438 mayors, with 200 over the Liberals. Explanation? The electoral system on a single ballot, which benefited the incumbent mayor. Marcel Ciolacu’s goal was to keep the party at the top of the national ranking, so he achieved his goal, although the army of mayors was reduced. The PSD also won the most County Councils: 20. But 8 fewer than in the last election four years ago. Is it a victory or a defeat? In the first place, in 2016, the presidents of the Provincial Councils were elected indirectly, by vote of the councilors. The PSD then managed to form local alliances with ALDE, UDMR and PMP, while the Liberals remained in opposition. This year it was a direct, single-member vote, after the Dăncilă government changed the electoral system under pressure from Baron Marian Oprişan. Ironically, Oprişan lost his hand. Therefore, we compare a direct vote (2016) with an indirect vote (2020). However, as in the case of mayors, the uninominal system benefited the presidents of the CJ in office: resources, notoriety, achievements (if applicable). PSD lost 8 counties it controlled, making it a stinging loss. In comparison, PNL doubled its number of Provincial Councils, although it left with a second chance.

In terms of regional residences, the PSD obtained 14 victories, especially in Oltenia and Moldova, five less than in 2016. The party’s great defeat came in the Capital, where Gabriela Firea did not achieve her second term as mayor. However, PSD scored the highest political score in Bucharest (32%), ahead of the USR PLUS Alliance (26%) and PNL (19%), a sign that Nicusor Dan will have strong opposition in the General Council. Gabriela Firea’s failure is painful for the party, but advantageous for Marcel Ciolacu. In the event of victory, Gabriela Firea would have coveted the position of party president. Thus, she will be exiled to the Senate, unable to build a pole of power around her. At the national level, the PSD obtained 30% of the votes, a spectacular increase after the 2019 European Parliament and presidential elections, when the Social Democrats barely exceeded 20%. From the opposition, PSD torpedoed the Government with populist laws in Parliament and abandoned the anti-justice struggle started by Liviu Dragnea, a combination that returned the party to the traditional score. Even if it maintains its result in parliament, the PSD will join the Opposition, because it is impossible to achieve a parliamentary majority, since the partners of ALDE and ProRomania fight irrelevantly. From a personal perspective, after Prime Minister Ludovic Orban, Marcel Ciolacu is the second winner of the local elections: he has strengthened his position in the party, with the probability of being the leader of the opposition in the next four years.

3. The USR PLUS alliance managed to break the monopoly of the traditional parties with important victories in Bucharest, Timisoara, Alba Iulia, Brasov and Bacau, but the successes are rather symbolic, precisely because they are so few. The alliance was clearly disadvantaged by the electoral system on a single ballot, which allowed thousands of PSD and PNL mayors to remain in office, but the USR has now been on the political scene for four years, during which time it should have grown . local leaders and propose solid alternatives for the 2020 elections. Proof that, where RSU politicians have constantly fought with the incumbent barons – Bacau or Brasov – they have managed to win the elections. The party led by Dan Barna and Dacian Cioloş brought together only 45 mayors in the entire country, being surpassed even by the PMP, with 50 mayors, since the party led by Traian Băsescu barely crosses the electoral threshold. The alliance failed to win any county councils. However, USR PLUS will form majorities in many local and provincial councils in conjunction with PNL, through which you can make your mark at the local level.

At the national level, USR PLUS collects only 13% of the votes, a result well below the score obtained in the 2019 European elections, when the Alliance exceeded 20%, blowing on the back of the PSD, in the context of the anti-Dragnea wave. The local result is identical to the percentage obtained by Dan Barna in the presidential elections and comparable to the USR score of four years ago, when the party entered Parliament with 9%. Until the legislative elections, USR PLUS must show that four years have not been in vain. It is necessary to mobilize the electorate suffocated by the traditional parties and repeat the performance of the European elections, otherwise a score of 13% will leave the party out of government and cut off the reformist breath in society. The result of the local elections shows that we are heading for a PNL-USR PLUS majority after the December parliamentary elections, but if the percentages on Sunday are repeated, the Liberals can obtain a majority only with the votes of the PMP and UDMR.

conclusion: PNL is the political winner of the local elections, PSD is the mathematical winner, while USR PLUS is the symbolic winner. However, how do PNL and USR PLUS answer the question: why, after four years of guerrilla warfare against Dragnea, does the PSD have more mayors, more county councils and 30% of the political votes?