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1. Ludovic Orban will be prime minister, even if NLP finishes second. Iohannis can’t afford to break the party. But NLP may still win, especially as diaspora votes are pouring in, not captured by exit polls.
2. PSD repeated the 2015 scenario: it ran into opposition a year before the elections and was reborn, proof that Iohannis, PNL and USR PLUS learned nothing from the lesson of the past. Everyone started from the premise that the PSD is dying, although, after the local result, it was clear that the PSD will come back even stronger. Absenteeism helped the PSD a lot, a party with a loyal electorate, but it is Ciolacu’s credit that he managed to mobilize the party’s army. After this result, Ciolacu is unrivaled in the match. If PNL and USR PLUS do not stop the war of pride, PSD will win all four rounds of elections in 2024.
3. USR PLUS kept living in an increasingly aggressive bubble and dreaming of green horses on the walls. Virtual reality has been defeated by offline reality. I look forward to the outcome in the diaspora, where USR just scoffed at the candidate list. Dan Barna and Dacian Cioloş cannot lead the future USR PLUS match. Take a new breath. In fact, Barna had to resign after the presidential election, as I wrote then. The future president of the new USR PLUS must be chosen from among: Vlad Voiculescu, Dominic Fritz, Clotilde Armand and Elena Lasconi. Or Nicusor Dan, if he were a politician-gamer. Let’s not forget that Nicusor Dan led a party in Parliament with 9% from scratch. Dan Barna and Dacian Cioloş couldn’t even double the 2016 score.
4. The UDMR once again mobilized exemplary, from this point of view it should be a model for the Romanian parties. UDMR will enter the government with PNL.
5. The PMP will cross the electoral threshold with the support of diaspora votes. He will be in power with NLP, because USR PLUS can no longer lift his nose to 16%.
6. There is still an ultra-nationalist electorate, silent, but turning their heads every four years even after the death of the PRM: see PPDD, PRU (near Parliament in 2016). It is GOLD now. The party will be isolated in Parliament, but it is still part of Romania. Although we don’t like to get together, it exists.
7. Causes of absenteeism: greed, pandemic and demand of the young electorate. In that order, I think.
