[ad_1]
Thus, according to IRSOP, the PNL has the first chance in Sunday’s elections, “but the fight is closed and surprises are not excluded.”
Here is the situation of the voting intentions of the parties:
NLP – 33%
PSD – 30%
USR PLUS – 17%
Pro Romania – 7%
UDMR – 5%
PMP – 3%
Others – 5%
Total 100%
IRSOP states that there are “percentages calculated for the total of respondents who say they will go to the polls”
“Although it leads, the NLP has not increased in recent weeks, and the proportion of voters who say they go to the polls” safe “or” very safe “is lower in the NLP than in the PSD and USR,” the authors also note. of this survey.
“The PSD has grown towards the end of the campaign, but compared to PNL and USR PLUS, it has more potential voters over 65 who believe that the risk of epidemic contamination in the section is” very high “and some of them probably they will prefer to stay at home, ”the IRSOP analysts also comment.
“If the previous configuration is maintained, the formula of the future government promises to be difficult. An alliance of NLP with USR PLUS needs additional partners and, in any case, opens a completely unknown and unpredictable territory of collaboration”, conclude the authors.
The survey was carried out with its own funding for the press and public information, the survey institute also states.
What matters for Romanians when deciding who to vote with
The feeling of life. Romanians do not feel that their economic situation is improving. Compared to last year, only 9% say it is better and 90% say it has not changed or is worse.
Economic expectations are discouraging: 83% have the impression that prices are constantly rising, and around two-thirds (61%) believe that in a year they will live more or less the same or worse than now:
He is expected to live next year:
Better (optimistic) 36%
Worst (pessimistic) 37%
About the same (unsafe) 24%
The influence of expectations on the voting options of the main parties:
I think next year, your life will be … Vote%
PNL PSD USR PLUS Total
Best 46 36 18 100
Worse 36 52 12 100
The “optimists” are more inclined towards NLP and USR PLUS, while the “pessimists” are more inclined towards PSD. Only about a third of “optimists” (36%) link their hopes to PSD. It means that if pessimism increases, so does PSD, and if people become more optimistic, NLP and USR PLUS will increase their support base, the survey authors also comment.
“Average household income will influence voting. In developing regions with above-average household incomes in the second quarter of 2020 (West, Northwest, Center, Bucharest Ilfov), voters turn to PNL and USR PLUS. In regions with incomes below the median (Northeast, Southeast, South, Southwest), preferences are directed more towards PSD and Pro Romania ”, those of IRSOP also point out.
The big concerns of the moment – the virus, the jobs, the restrictions affect the electorates of the major parties slightly differently. Variations in the intensity of concerns reflect electorate demographic differences and the effects of the party’s rhetoric on its own voters. For example, PSD supporters seem less concerned about the virus and USR voters are more relaxed about jobs.
Leadership clothing. Protracted national crises erode leaders, even if they do well and manage to control the situation with minimal losses relative to the severity of the circumstances. About two-thirds (68%) would like another prime minister after the elections, and 46% (less than half) of President Johannis say he is doing a “good” or “very good” job.
Coalitions are not to the liking of Romanians, but the vote is still very diverse
Potential coalitions Popular support% Yes No
NLP with USR PLUS 47 49
PNL, USR PLUS, UDMR 20 76
PSD with Pro Romania 33 64
PSD, Pro Romania, UDMR 23 73
IRSOP analysts find two things concerning:
– Any coalition that includes UDMR loses popular support;
– A NLP coalition, USR PLUS does not start with a very comfortable public support capital.
Technical details
For this survey, IRSOP interviewed 1,004 people by phone between November 22 and 28, 2020. The sample is representative of the resident population over 18 years of age in Romania. The sampling tolerance is ± 3%. The participation could reach 40%.
IRSOP is an independent research and consulting institute.
