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Belgian health authorities estimate, based on seroprevalence studies, that between 10% and 20% of the Belgian population will have antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 virus after the current second wave of the pandemic, a proportion that will help to slow down the transmission of the virus, but makes group immunity impossible in the absence of a vaccine, writes EFE on Friday, assumed by Agerpres.
“Several models estimate that, if we moved towards group immunity only naturally, we would have at least 60,000 deaths in our country”, that is, a number of deaths 4.3 times higher than the 13,891 registered so far in Belgium, Yves van Laethem, spokesman for the Belgian technical committee to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, said at a press conference on Friday.
Therefore, the only option is to wait for a good vaccine, limit contacts and respect the measures, “he added. He confirmed the views that for a group immunity it is necessary that 60-70% of the population have antibodies.
Group immunity does not mean the disappearance of the virus
On the other hand, the Belgian expert points out, it is not yet known to what extent and for how long people cured of COVID-19 are protected by naturally obtained antibodies, and the percentage of people who have antibodies varies from one region to another. depending on how much the epidemic has affected them and, in any case, “group immunity does not mean the disappearance of the virus itself.”
“The eradication of the virus requires, first, that the only reservoir (of infection) is the human, but we know that there is also an animal reservoir”, so the vaccine will be necessary anyway, says Yves van Laethem.
In conclusion, he points out, natural group immunity cannot be obtained without the vaccine “unless we are willing to pay an extremely high price in human lives and the destruction of the health system.”
Belgium has 1,232 new cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 14 days, one of the highest rates in Europe, so at the end of October it was blocked again, with all travel restrictions and social contacts applied . during the spring epidemic wave. Schools will reopen on Monday, after an extended two-week holiday due to the epidemic.
Editor: Luana Pavaluca
