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The big surprise was what happened in Congress, where Republicans performed dramatically better than their predictions in the context of Trump’s resounding defeat.
Let’s start with the Senate: Most independent analysts have long predicted that Democrats will likely win a majority on November 3.
“Democrats remain clear favorites to win back the Senate with just a few days to go to Election Day,” wrote Jessica Taylor, Senate editor-in-chief of Cook Political Report (a nonpartisan online newsletter that examines US elections and campaigns. ).
“The lack of a tighter presidential race means that Trump remains an anchor that will condemn the failure of many Republicans in power,” he added.
It didn’t turn out that way. Yes, in Colorado the Republicans lost a seat, but so did the Democrats in Alabama. And Republicans considered in danger in Maine, Iowa and Montana have won, in the last two states, by a significant margin.
In Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly, a former NASA astronaut, took on Republican Martha McSally, but the Democrats have no other obvious win.
Now let’s move on to the House of Representatives: In the days leading up to the election, political analysts said not only that Republicans would not regain a majority in the lower house of Congress, but that they could face double-digit losses.
Again, this did not happen. No way.
“At the time of writing, Republicans are poised to win between 5 and 10 seats in the House,” David Wasserman, Cook Report editor for the House of Representatives, said Wednesday afternoon.
That means Republicans will most likely remain in the minority in 2021, but reducing the lead would make each vote a substantial effort for Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic leader in the House.
Furthermore, if Biden wins the presidency, Republicans will be well positioned to enter the race to win a majority in the lower house in the 2022 midterm elections.
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