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The second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic that Europe is currently facing will probably not be the last, and we may fear “several successive waves at the end of this winter” in the spring of next year as well.
“So we have many months ahead in an extremely difficult situation,” warned the Scientific Council advising the French government, reports AFP.
Posted online over the weekend, the notification is dated Monday, October 26, two days before President Emmanuel Macron’s announcement of a new quarantine established after the second wave of COVID-19.
“It is very difficult to predict how long the second wave will last, because it depends on the virus itself, its climate, the measures that will be taken to limit the circulation of the virus, its acceptance and, therefore, the impact.” writes the Scientific Council.
“We can hypothesize an exit from the second wave at the end of this year or early 2021. This exit should be accompanied by a return of the virus circulation to a very controlled level (maximum of 5,000 to 8,000 new daily contaminations),” he specifies the body.
Announcing new restrictions until at least December 1, President Emmanuel Macron said the goal is to reach “about 5,000” cases of contamination per day, from 40,000 to 50,000 today.
Whatever the success of the implemented measures, they will probably not be sufficient “to avoid new waves after the second,” warned the Scientific Council, which recommended the finally decided quarantine.
“Therefore, we can have several successive waves in the late winter and spring of 2021, depending on several elements: climate, level and operational efficiency of the test / follow-up / isolation strategy (of positive cases),” he added. Body.
Therefore, European governments will face a “management of successive waves of recurrence” of the epidemic, “until the first vaccines and / or treatments”, probably in the second quarter of 2021, added the French Scientific Council.
