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The state has been a barometer for the last three presidential elections, and Iowa’s decision corresponds to the overall result. In 2016, Trump won Iowa by a wide margin, garnering 51.1% of the vote compared to 41.7% for Hillary Clinton.
On average, the current Iowa poll places Trump ahead by 2 points, far less than four years ago.
Yet in the November 3 presidential election, Biden is the favorite in the polls to “win back” the White House from Donald Trump, writes CNN. He leads enough swing states to get the required 270 electoral votes, and these are longer than Hillary Clinton had four years ago.
According to CNN, if the poll reflects reality, Trump is in a much better position than expected, and the two would be in a much closer race than many expected.
Few, if any, of Biden’s sources of profit for the 270 electoral votes go through Iowa. But if Biden doesn’t fare much better in Iowa than Clinton did four years ago, then Democrats may be concerned that do not do better elsewhere.
In fact, writes CNN, it is possible that Trump will win Iowa by a big difference that predicts trouble in other states, like the Midwest states: Michigan and Wisconsin.
The reason the Selzer poll gives Democrats chills and Republicans hope is the history of the Selzer poll. Four years ago, the last Selzer poll had Trump with 7 identical points in Iowa. Trump won by 9 points.
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