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It is very possible that the quarantine will be established in large areas by December, including in Bucharest, because these new cases that appear and are growing also bring other new cases, more and more, explained Professor Alexandru Rafila, the representative. Romania at WHO, Friday night, on Digi24.
This process did not stop and probably not until the end of December, in the absence of other measures – because we are approaching a limit of measures of a certain type, those that are less restrictive – I believe that the number of cases at the end of this Monday will register a five-digit number, which means there will be at least 10,000 cases per day. (…) In this number of cases, the intensive care capacity is, of course, exceeded, and this has a direct consequence in terms of mortality ”, said Alexandru Rafila.
The professor gave the example of the Czech Republic, which has an incidence rate of coronavirus cases in the last two weeks five times higher than that of Romania. “We have a mortality of around 6, up to 6, the Czech Republic has exceeded 12, in terms of a more robust health system than in Romania. This shows me that at a certain moment, when the number of cases causes massive hospitalizations to intensive care and this practically blocks access to qualified health services, intensive care, mortality increases, ”said Professor Rafila.
Tighter measures, but schools will remain open
“What I say is a bit harsh, but what I say affects me a lot, because I am thinking about this option and I don’t know how we can avoid it unless we follow a model that I see being applied in France, even in Germany. – more well perhaps the German model – which, paradoxically, establishes measures to limit economic and social activities, but leaves schools open, something with which I personally agree ”, mentioned the Romanian representative in the WHO.
He added that there are very recent studies that show that Children are not the main source of the disease during this period, but public transport congestion., which is responsible for most cases of transmission. “This must be taken very seriously,” said Alexandru Rafila.
There are tougher measures in France than in Germany. “France now has 48,000 cases and if we divide by 3, because there are about 60 million, compared to about 20 million in Romania, it would be the equivalent of 16,000 cases in Romania, this would be the correlation, so there are two and a half times more cases than us, “explained Professor Rafila.” So France had to take this measure, late, but the idea is this: the sooner the measure is taken, its duration can be shorter, “said the president of the Romanian Society of Microbiology.
Two days ago, when asked, also on Digi24, if Romania should impose a total quarantine, Alexandru Rafila replied: “At the moment, no.”
Editor: Luana Pavaluca
